RaboResearch - Economic Research

Philip Marey

Senior US Strategist

Philip Marey is Senior US Strategist and responsible for Rabobank’s US outlook. He writes and gives client presentations on topics such as Fed policy, the US economy, interest rates, and the impact of US politics on financial markets, and makes frequent media appearances. He has developed various econometric models of interest rates and exchange rates.

Before joining Rabobank, Philip worked as a researcher and as a project manager at Maastricht University on various applied econometric research projects for the European Commission and the Dutch government. He also taught courses in monetary economics and financial markets at Maastricht University.

Philip has an M.Sc. in econometrics from Erasmus University Rotterdam. His academic research has been published in the Journal of International Money and Finance and the Journal of Macroeconomics.

Publications Philip Marey

Special

United States: The inevitable recession

A recession seems inevitable for the US: even if the economy is able to absorb the exogenous shocks to the supply side, the response of the central bank to the wage-price spiral will cause a recession from within.

Special

United States: Yield curve inversions and recessions

Yield curve inversions are often seen as warning signals of a recession, but a statistical analysis suggests that these signals should be interpreted with care. We provide the thresholds that would indicate a probability of a recession higher than 50%.

Special

Biden opts for continuity at the Fed: Powell nominated for second term

Biden’s nominatie van Powell voor een tweede termijn als Fed-voorzitter zou gunstig moeten zijn voor de onafhankelijkheid van de Fed van partijpolitiek. Echter, het is een nederlaag voor de linkervleugel van de Democratische partij die een voorkeur zou hebben voor een kandidaat die de impact van monetair beleid op vermogensongelijkheid terugdraait.

Special

United States infrastructure: Impact on economy and elections

Although the bipartisan infrastructure package is long overdue given the state of the infrastructure of the United States, it will hit the economy at a time of full employment and after a couple of years of high inflation. This means that the bang for the buck will be substantially eroded.

Economic Report

The US standoff on the debt limit: an unnecessary political game

In October we could see both a US government shutdown and a government default if the spending and debt bill approved by the House of Representatives on Tuesday does not pass the Senate. This is a game of chicken between Democrats and Republicans that is completely unnecessary.

Economic Report

United States: American Jobs Plan

President Biden has presented his American Jobs Plan, which amounts to about $2 trillion in spending on infrastructure and care. This should be financed by raising the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21% and by other tax measures aimed at corporations.

Special

United States: American Rescue Plan

President Biden has delivered a large covid relief package within the first 100 days of his administration that will support Americans at least through early September. By not fully exploring the bipartisan route, Biden has limited the type of policies that he can get through Congress going forward.

Economic Report

EU - US: Towards renewed transatlantic cooperation?

The relationship between the EU and the US appears to be improving under the Biden administration, but several potential conflicts remain, such as the taxation of big tech and fossil energy, and tariffs on steel and aluminum.

Special

United States: President Biden

While we expect Biden’s policies to boost economic growth, we do not expect them to end the vicious cycle of polarization and social unrest that is undermining the country. In foreign and trade policy, Biden is likely to return to a multilateral approach.