Michael Every is the Head of Financial Markets Research Asia-Pacific. Based in Hong Kong, he analyses the major developments in the Asia-Pacific region and contributes to the bank’s various economic research publications for internal and external customers and to the media.
Michael has nearly two decades of experience working as an Economist and Strategist. Before Rabobank, he was a Director at Silk Road Associates, a strategy consultancy based in Bangkok. Prior to this, he was Senior Economist and Fixed Income Strategist at the Royal Bank of Canada based in both London and Sydney. Michael was formerly also an Economist for Dun & Bradstreet in London, covering ASEAN.
Michael holds a Masters degree in Economics (with distinction) from University College London and speaks Thai.
Special
We have revised our economic forecasts and expect the global economy to contract by 2.6% in 2020. How quickly the economy recovers after the coronavirus crisis depends on how fast people get back to work and whether productivity growth is permanently damaged.
Special
We have changed our base case and now expect a recession in virtually all G10 countries, which will lead world economic growth to slow to 0.7% for 2020, the weakest this figure has been since the great financial crisis of 2008/2009.
Special
We outline four scenarios in which the coronavirus outbreak becomes increasingly severe and discuss the implications for China and the world economy.
Special
China’s lower economic growth together with smaller and more targeted stimulus compared to previous episodes dampen the global outlook. Together with a potential shift in global policy responses, this likely means a new shift lower in bond yields again soon.
Economic Report
The recent HKIA occupation has already hit Hong Kong’s economy and its global reputation; any repeat would be exponentially more damaging. Yet if such action were to trigger a crackdown from China the potential risks would be far larger than just to Hong Kong’s GDP or its reputation.
Special
The recent announcement from the US to further up the ante in the trade dispute with China clearly marks a new escalation in the trade war. If one takes China’s recent response into account, it’s hard to see either side trying to ease tensions at this stage.
Special
The US has raised import tariffs from 10% to 25% on 200bn worth of Chinese goods shipped to US shores and China has vowed to retaliate. In this report, we assess the economic impact of these measures, as well as a scenario where the US-China trade war fully escalates.
Economic Comment
At their G20 dinner date, the United States and China have agreed to stop imposing new tariffs for a period of 90 days. We regard this as can-kicking at best, and it arguably puts the US in an even stronger position going forward.
Special
The US had announced USD 50bn of tariffs on Chinese exports and China has responded with a matching USD 50bn of tariffs on US exports. But the US has now raised the ante with a further unspecified USD 200bn of tariffs on Chinese goods - and the threat of a further USD 200bn if China responds again in kind. What is the possible impact and what might happen next?
Special
Trump’s protectionist steel decision increases the risk of a trade war. But a full scale trade war would hurt the US economy even more than China and the EU.