Michael Every is a Global Strategist at Rabobank. He analyses major developments and contributes to the bank’s various economic research publications for internal and external customers and to the media.
Michael has over two decades of experience working as an Economist and Strategist. Before Rabobank, he was a Director at Silk Road Associates in Bangkok, Senior Economist and Fixed Income Strategist at the Royal Bank of Canada in both London and Sydney, and an Economist for Dun & Bradstreet in London.
Michael holds a Masters degree in Economics (with distinction) from University College London and speaks a smattering of languages, including Thai.
Special
An increasing number of businesses are considering to move their production from China to friendly counties. This could cost up to 28m Chinese jobs. Depending on the product, we expect these jobs to move to either low-wage countries, emerging markets or to developed economies.
Special
Fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine linger despite recent possible de-escalation. RaboResearch has modelled the macroeconomic impact of three war scenarios. Worryingly, we see a high risk/reward scenario for Russia rather than just downside or for a more violent world order.
Special
The current crisis in the Ukraine brings latent problems for the German economic model to the fore. We argue that there are four options for Germany: Muddling on, engaging with the West, strategic autonomy within Europe and engaging with the East.
Special
Tensions between the EU and China have increased considerably and some decoupling is likely. With a vulnerability heat map, we show that a sharp deterioration of EU-China relations would have negative implications for the entire EU, but mostly for Germany.
Special
Het investeringsverdrag tussen de EU en China zou op papier meer toegang voor EU-bedrijven moeten bieden tot China en een gelijker speelveld creëren. In de praktijk loopt het risico om een mislukking te worden voor de EU.
Special
The EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) should improve EU companies’ access to China and ‘level’ the playing field. However, its commitments are ‘weak’ and the envisaged dispute resolution mechanism lacks teeth.
Economic Report
On November 15th, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) was signed, but India decided to opt out. Many consider this a policy mistake, but we argue that India’s choice is actually quite rational.
Special
This Special forecasts the world order of 2030. We shows how past world orders collapsed due to weakening hegemonic power and project to 2030 show while the US will likely remain top dog, our world order will again be far more fragmented overall.
Economic Report
Against the backdrop of a crippled economy and rising debt metrics, policymakers around the globe are adopting or considering unconventional monetary policy to solve the current state of emergency. For some countries, such as India, this would be a bad idea. We show that a major MMT fiscal package could push inflation up to 12% and the currency down by 25%.
Column
De roep om de geldpers aan te zetten om overheidsuitgaven te financieren is door de coronacrisis steeds luider geworden. Maar dat is een slecht plan als je structureel financieel afhankelijk bent van het buitenland.