Hugo Erken works as a senior economist at RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets.
He is a country analyst for the US, Canada, Mexico, India and a number of other South Asian countries. In addition, he works on economic forecasting, scenario analysis and a wide range of macro-economic topics, with a special interest in the labour market and productivity. Previously, Hugo was an analyst for China, the euro area, Germany and France.
Hugo graduated in International Economics at Radboud University Nijmegen and wrote his PhD dissertation on Productivity, R&D and Entrepreneurship at the Erasmus University Rotterdam. Previously, Hugo has worked for the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs, the Dutch Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment, and the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
Special Dutch version
In this publication we look at three different indications pointing at increasing US recessionary risks. Our treasury yield curve model suggests a 27% probability of a recession in the 17-month window. This probability is much higher than the recession expectation of the NY Fed.
Economic Comment
What are the similarities between trade wars, capital flight from emerging markets caused by an acceleration of the Fed tightening cycle and… Formula One?
Special
US trade and monetary policy will have a substantial effect on the Indian economy. We calculate a Indian capital flows model to assess the impact of an acceleration of the Fed’s tightening cycle. Our results show that India would lose USD 22bn in missed capital inflows up to 2022.
Economic Comment
The EU is temporarily exempted from the steel and aluminium tariffs in the US. While seeking permanent exemption, it might be difficult for the EU to increase defence spending to the satisfaction of the US, due to the possibly massive costs involved.
Economic Comment
De spanningen lopen verder op nu Trump China op de korrel neemt. De EU heeft juist een ontheffing gekregen op hogere tarieven. De ontheffing is echter tijdelijk. Hoe gaat het nu verder? En welke sectoren lopen het meeste risico als spanningen escaleren?
Special
In anticipation of the new tensions in the trade war saga, we assess which economic segments are most vulnerable in China, Europe and the US. We subsequently look at bilateral trade ties, food & agri flows and fiscal deficits related to higher defence spending.
Special
Trump’s protectionist steel decision increases the risk of a trade war. But a full scale trade war would hurt the US economy even more than China and the EU.
Special
China voor grote uitdagingen om de welvaart duurzaam te verhogen. Op korte termijn speelt vermindering van schulden, milieuvervuiling en inkomensongelijkheid een belangrijke rol. Maar ook investeringen in productiviteitsgroei zijn van groot belang om de middeninkomensval te ontlopen.
Special
We verwachten dat de Amerikaanse loongroei tussen de 3,0 en 3,3 procent zal pieken eind 2019, wat relatief bescheiden is. Tegelijkertijd zien we ook dat we dicht bij de piek van de economische cyclus zitten, wat betekent dat de recessierisico’s sterk zijn gestegen.