RaboResearch - Economic Research

Hugo Erken

Head of Netherlands Economics

Hugo oversees a team of economists that is responsible for analysing and forecasting Dutch macroeconomic and sectoral developments.

The team has a broad coverage on specific topics, such as the Dutch housing market, the labor market, savings and pensions, entrepreneurship, productivity and the impact of government policy. Our knowledge ultimately aims to assist clients and other stakeholders in preparing for the future. Hugo’s focus areas are the labor market, international trade and productivity.

Hugo has more than 20 years of experience in economic research and joined RaboResearch in 2015. Before Rabobank, he worked for the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs, the Dutch Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment, and the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. Hugo graduated in International Economics at the Radboud University Nijmegen and wrote his PhD dissertation on Productivity, R&D and Entrepreneurship at the Erasmus University Rotterdam.

Publications Hugo Erken

Economic Report

Going down: Revising our economic forecasts for India

We have revised our economic forecasts for the Indian economy downward to -10.6% for fiscal 2020/21 and expect the economy to grow by 8.9% in fiscal 2021/22. The main reason for the revision is that monthly economic data show that the pace of recovery is much slower than anticipated.

Economic Report

India’s worrying inflation dynamics

Inflation in India has been stubbornly high. Although we expect inflation to come down, we believe the downward trajectory will be short-lived. Against this backdrop, the Reserve Bank of India is probably reluctant to cut its policy rates.

Economic Comment

Phase One Monitor: September Update. Decoupling taking shape

Based on the latest trade data, China only has five months left to crank up imports of US goods and services by USD 100bn in order to reach the 2020 target in the Phase One trade deal. This seems unrealistic and we believe that the Phase One trade deal will break down before the year is out.

Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version

Global Economic Outlook: Waves of uncertainty

The global economy has bottomed out and started its recovery. However, the recovery is marred by uncertainties such as more waves of coronavirus infections, lurking negative effects on the labor market and productivity and rising geopolitical tensions.

Economic Comment

India: Record GDP plunge among worst globally

The Indian economy contracted by 23.9% in Q2 due to one of the most stringent COVID-19 lockdown globally. Despite a rallying rupee, uncertainty remains large, especially on the geopolitical front.

Economic Report

Should India Print Money To Fight Covid-19?

Against the backdrop of a crippled economy and rising debt metrics, policymakers around the globe are adopting or considering unconventional monetary policy to solve the current state of emergency. For some countries, such as India, this would be a bad idea. We show that a major MMT fiscal package could push inflation up to 12% and the currency down by 25%.

Special

Money printing: First, do no harm

Can we just print extra money to tackle the corona crisis? We conclude that only seven (!) countries in the world meet our proposed MMT criteria: leaving aside the US, these countries need the rare combination of a sovereign currency, simultaneous fiscal deficit and current account surplus, plus good governance.