RaboResearch - Economic Research

Hugo Erken

Head of International Economics

Hugo Erken is head of International Economics at RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets.

Hugo coordinates the team of international economists within GEM that is responsible for analyzing and forecasting international macroeconomic, political and financial developments. Besides his coordinating tasks, Hugo is a country analyst for the US and India and has a special interest in thematic work covering the labour market and productivity.

Hugo joined RaboResearch in 2015. Previously, Hugo has worked for the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs, the Dutch Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment, and the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. Hugo graduated in International Economics at Radboud University Nijmegen and wrote his PhD dissertation on Productivity, R&D and Entrepreneurship at the Erasmus University Rotterdam.

Publications Hugo Erken

Special

The WTO dispute settlement crisis. Back to the GATT regime?

Since 2017 the US has blocked the appointment of new members of WTO’s Appellate Body, which per 11 December is unable to fulfil its tasks. Consequently, trade disputes would again have to be resolved according to the GATT regime, means trade rules will be dictated by the most powerful countries.

Column

Maakt Trump zijn eigen wagenpark duurder? (Dutch)

Zolang de inkt van een fase 1 deal tussen de VS en China niet droog is, zal Trump de invoertarieven op Europese auto’s niet verhogen. Maar de dreiging blijft voorlopig bestaan. Europa en met name Duitsland houdt gespannen de adem in.

Special

Very dangerous European cars part II

Soon, President Trump will announce what to do with tariffs on EU cars. We think he will not hike tariffs just yet, but will keep the tariff threat alive. Within the EU, the German and Hungarian economy are most vulnerable to higher car tariffs in the US.

Economic Report

India could miss the shift underway in global trade, unless...

In our Where Will They Go index (including market size), India tops the list of countries that might benefit from the US-China trade war. The current economic slump weighs on India’s attractiveness as investment destination, which required the government to act by launching structural reforms.

Special

Het groeipotentieel van de Nederlandse economie tot 2030 (Dutch)

Economische groei wordt op lange termijn bepaald door de groei van arbeid, kapitaal en totale factorproductiviteit (TFP). De bbp-groei is gemiddeld 1,0 procent. Arbeid draagt tot 2030 gemiddeld negatief bij aan de groei; kapitaal en TFP positief. Voor die laatste zijn investeringen in kennis en innovatie cruciaal.

Video

Which countries might benefit from the US-China trade war? (video)

Rabobank economists Hugo Erken and Raphie Hayat talk about what the US-China trade war means for Southeast Asia. Will US companies in China leave? And if so, where will they go? Will Southeast Asian countries emerge as winners from the trade war? Find out in this video update.