RaboResearch - Economic Research

Hugo Erken

Senior Economist

Hugo Erken works as a senior economist at RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets.

He is a country analyst for the US, Canada, Mexico, India and a number of other South Asian countries. In addition, he works on economic forecasting, scenario analysis and a wide range of macro-economic topics, with a special interest in the labour market and productivity. Previously, Hugo was an analyst for China, the euro area, Germany and France.

Hugo graduated in International Economics at Radboud University Nijmegen and wrote his PhD dissertation on Productivity, R&D and Entrepreneurship at the Erasmus University Rotterdam. Previously, Hugo has worked for the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs, the Dutch Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment, and the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

Publications Hugo Erken

Special

Een handelsoorlog met de VS raakt Nederland hard (Dutch)

De gevolgen van een eventuele volledige handelsoorlog op de Nederlandse economie zijn significant: de schade kan oplopen tot 20 miljard euro aan misgelopen groei. Dit komt vooral door een veel lagere uitvoer.

Economic Report

The downsides of India’s oil addiction

The oil market is going through a rocky period. Large net oil importing emerging markets, such as India, are vulnerable, but exactly how vulnerable? In this column we show the economic impact in case of a mild and severe oil price shock.

Economic Comment

Trade wars: A Global Game Of Wrestling, And India’s ‘Thumb War’

After months of de-escalating trade tensions, President Trump decided to start a global wrestle over trade. The problem with wrestling is that everybody ends up being bruised. Although India might be trying to avoid the punch-up, it is probably not immune to these kinds of economic shocks.

Economic Report

Impact op Nederland van handelsconflict met de VS (Dutch)

Als reactie op de Amerikaanse staal- en aluminiumtarieven heeft de Europese Unie importtarieven ingevoerd op 200 Amerikaanse producten. Van deze producten importeert Nederland vooral veel cranberrysap, speelkaarten en make-up uit de VS.

Special

US-China Trade War: Back to the Future

The US had announced USD 50bn of tariffs on Chinese exports and China has responded with a matching USD 50bn of tariffs on US exports. But the US has now raised the ante with a further unspecified USD 200bn of tariffs on Chinese goods - and the threat of a further USD 200bn if China responds again in kind. What is the possible impact and what might happen next?

Special

The oil market in turmoil: a case of losers and winners

Scenario analyses shows that a surge in oil prices results in a global economic loss of 0.4ppts-0.9ppts between 2018 and 2022. The economic impact, however, is very unevenly distributed among countries. We distinguish three groups: the vulnerable ones, the lucky ones, and the uncomfortable ones.