RaboResearch - Economic Research

Hugo Erken

Senior Economist

Hugo Erken works as a senior economist at RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets.

He is a country analyst for the US, Canada, Mexico, India and a number of other South Asian countries. In addition, he works on economic forecasting, scenario analysis and a wide range of macro-economic topics, with a special interest in the labour market and productivity. Previously, Hugo was an analyst for China, the euro area, Germany and France.

Hugo graduated in International Economics at Radboud University Nijmegen and wrote his PhD dissertation on Productivity, R&D and Entrepreneurship at the Erasmus University Rotterdam. Previously, Hugo has worked for the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs, the Dutch Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment, and the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

Publications Hugo Erken

Special Dutch version

Trade wars then and now: Smoot-Hawley all over again

The protectionism of the Trump era is similar to the 1930s in terms of motivation, timing, and retaliation. The differences lie in the shift of protectionism through tariffs to non-tariff barriers and the extent of international value chain integration, which makes the impact of protectionist measures less predictable.


De economische impact van handelsoorlogen (Dutch)

Hoewel de effecten van de opleving van protectionisme in de jaren ’30 moeilijk te scheiden zijn van de effecten van de recessie, laat die periode in de economische geschiedenis wel zien dat de gevolgen van een wereldwijde handelsoorlog vele malen groter kunnen zijn dan de beperkte effecten van de huidige schermutselingen.


Een handelsoorlog met de VS raakt Nederland hard (Dutch)

De gevolgen van een eventuele volledige handelsoorlog op de Nederlandse economie zijn significant: de schade kan oplopen tot 20 miljard euro aan misgelopen groei. Dit komt vooral door een veel lagere uitvoer.

Economic Report

The downsides of India’s oil addiction

The oil market is going through a rocky period. Large net oil importing emerging markets, such as India, are vulnerable, but exactly how vulnerable? In this column we show the economic impact in case of a mild and severe oil price shock.

Economic Comment

Trade wars: A Global Game Of Wrestling, And India’s ‘Thumb War’

After months of de-escalating trade tensions, President Trump decided to start a global wrestle over trade. The problem with wrestling is that everybody ends up being bruised. Although India might be trying to avoid the punch-up, it is probably not immune to these kinds of economic shocks.

Economic Report

Impact op Nederland van handelsconflict met de VS (Dutch)

Als reactie op de Amerikaanse staal- en aluminiumtarieven heeft de Europese Unie importtarieven ingevoerd op 200 Amerikaanse producten. Van deze producten importeert Nederland vooral veel cranberrysap, speelkaarten en make-up uit de VS.