Hugo Erken works as a senior economist at RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets.
He is a country analyst for the US, Canada, Mexico, India and a number of other South Asian countries. In addition, he works on economic forecasting, scenario analysis and a wide range of macro-economic topics, with a special interest in the labour market and productivity. Previously, Hugo was an analyst for China, the euro area, Germany and France.
Hugo graduated in International Economics at Radboud University Nijmegen and wrote his PhD dissertation on Productivity, R&D and Entrepreneurship at the Erasmus University Rotterdam. Previously, Hugo has worked for the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs, the Dutch Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment, and the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
Economic Comment
At their G20 dinner, the United States and China have agreed to stop imposing new tariffs for a period of 90 days. We regard this as a can-kicking at best, and arguably puts the US in an even stronger position going forward.
Special Dutch version
Our results show that China disproportionately would bear the brunt of a US-China trade war, especially in case of a further escalation. Although most losses end up in these countries that are directly involved, the bilateral trade war also negatively affects third parties, such as the Eurozone and The Netherlands.
Special
This Special re-assesses the economic impact of the US-China trade war, using more advanced methodologies. Our analysis shows that China disproportionately would bear the brunt of a US-China trade war, especially in case of a further escalation.
Infographic Dutch version
Infographic accompanying the publication 'China has much more to lose than the US in a further escalating trade war'.
Column
Paul Romer ontvangt de Nobelprijs voor Economie voor zijn bijdrage aan de endogene groeitheorie en dat is meer dan terecht. Economen en economische bureaus kunnen vandaag de dag namelijk nog steeds veel leren van het werk dat Romer bijna drie decennia geleden gepubliceerde.
Special
De valuta van de opkomende markten hebben sinds april stevige verliezen genoteerd. Deze Special presenteert een nieuwe heatmap waarmee de kwetsbaarheid van de opkomende markten in kaart wordt gebracht.
Economic Report
We believe the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is making a policy error after the last MPC meeting by keeping its policy rates on hold. There is a risk that the RBI is underestimating the inflationary pressure in the Indian economy and the impact of the ongoing Fed tightening cycle.