Hugo Erken works as a senior economist at RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets.
He is a country analyst for the US, Canada, Mexico, India and a number of other South Asian countries. In addition, he works on economic forecasting, scenario analysis and a wide range of macro-economic topics, with a special interest in the labour market and productivity. Previously, Hugo was an analyst for China, the euro area, Germany and France.
Hugo graduated in International Economics at Radboud University Nijmegen and wrote his PhD dissertation on Productivity, R&D and Entrepreneurship at the Erasmus University Rotterdam. Previously, Hugo has worked for the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs, the Dutch Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment, and the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
Special
In this Special we present our new nowcasting methodology for the Indian economy. Our combined model predicts an economic growth for calendar 2018Q4 of 6.3%, which would imply a significant slowdown of economic activity after the already disappointing GDP print of 7.1% in Q3.
Infographic
Infographic on Rabobank’s integral model-based forecasting approach accompanying the publication 'Nowcasting the Indian economy'.
Economic Report
In 2019, we expect the Indian economy to continue to be the global outperformer in terms of economic growth. There are however substantial downside risks, such as a defeat of Modi’s BJP in the general election and an escalation of the US-China trade war.
Video
In 2019, we expect the Indian economy to continue to be the global outperformer in terms of economic growth. There are however substantial downside risks, such as a defeat of Modi’s BJP in the general election and an escalation of the US-China trade war.
Economic Report
There is much controversy surrounding India’s GDP back-series for years 2004/05 to 2011/12. The discussion now has been politicized, which is undermining the credibility of Indian statistics. This is worrying, especially for an emerging economy which can easily lose the support of international investors.
Economic Comment
At their G20 dinner date, the United States and China have agreed to stop imposing new tariffs for a period of 90 days. We regard this as can-kicking at best, and it arguably puts the US in an even stronger position going forward.
Special Dutch version
Our analysis shows that China disproportionately bears the brunt of a US-China trade war, especially in case of a further escalation. Although most losses end up in the US and China, their bilateral trade war also negatively affects third parties, such as the Eurozone and The Netherlands.
Special
This Special re-assesses the economic impact of the US-China trade war, using more advanced methodologies. Our analysis shows that China disproportionately bears the brunt of a US-China trade war, especially in case of a further escalation.