RaboResearch - Economic Research

Hugo Erken

Head International Research

Hugo Erken is head International Research at RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets.

Hugo coordinates the team of international economists within GEM that is responsible for analyzing and forecasting international macroeconomic, political and financial developments. Besides his coordinating tasks, Hugo is a country analyst for the US and India and has a special interest in thematic work covering the labour market and productivity.

Hugo joined RaboResearch in 2015. Previously, Hugo has worked for the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs, the Dutch Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment, and the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. Hugo graduated in International Economics at Radboud University Nijmegen and wrote his PhD dissertation on Productivity, R&D and Entrepreneurship at the Erasmus University Rotterdam.

Publications Hugo Erken

Special

Nowcasting the Indian economy

In this Special we present our new nowcasting methodology for the Indian economy. Our combined model predicts an economic growth for calendar 2018Q4 of 6.3%, which would imply a significant slowdown of economic activity after the already disappointing GDP print of 7.1% in Q3.

Economic Report

India: 2019 Economic Outlook

In 2019, we expect the Indian economy to continue to be the global outperformer in terms of economic growth. There are however substantial downside risks, such as a defeat of Modi’s BJP in the general election and an escalation of the US-China trade war.

Video

India: 2019 Economic Outlook - video

In 2019, we expect the Indian economy to continue to be the global outperformer in terms of economic growth. There are however substantial downside risks, such as a defeat of Modi’s BJP in the general election and an escalation of the US-China trade war.

Economic Report

India: GDP data revision - Eat your cake, don’t ‘cook’ it

There is much controversy surrounding India’s GDP back-series for years 2004/05 to 2011/12. The discussion now has been politicized, which is undermining the credibility of Indian statistics. This is worrying, especially for an emerging economy which can easily lose the support of international investors.

Economic Comment

The G20 High Stakes Dinner between the US and China

At their G20 dinner date, the United States and China have agreed to stop imposing new tariffs for a period of 90 days. We regard this as can-kicking at best, and it arguably puts the US in an even stronger position going forward.