RaboResearch - Economic Research

Hugo Erken

Head of International Economics

Hugo Erken is head of International Economics at RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets.

Hugo coordinates the team of international economists within GEM that is responsible for analyzing and forecasting international macroeconomic, political and financial developments. Besides his coordinating tasks, Hugo is a country analyst for the US and India and has a special interest in thematic work covering the labour market and productivity.

Hugo joined RaboResearch in 2015. Previously, Hugo has worked for the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs, the Dutch Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment, and the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. Hugo graduated in International Economics at Radboud University Nijmegen and wrote his PhD dissertation on Productivity, R&D and Entrepreneurship at the Erasmus University Rotterdam.

Publications Hugo Erken

Special

India: Economic growth set to plunge as uncertainty rises

We have revised our economic projections for India downwards and expect the economy to contract by 2.9% in fiscal 2020/21. The economic stimulus package of 20 lakh crore is expected to prop up growth this fiscal year by 1.8ppts, but more unconventional policy measures (such as debt monetization) seem necessary.

Economic Report

Which jobs are vulnerable in the six-foot economy?

The United States might be stuck with a so-called ‘six-foot economy’ for a considerable period of time in order to prevent a re-emergence of the COVID-19 virus. Our main finding is that 23% of all US jobs might face problems to adapt to such an economy. Occupations in healthcare (60% vulnerable jobs), air transport (59%) and the hospitality sector (49%) are especially vulnerable.

Economic Report

The shape of India’s exit from the COVID-19 crisis

We expect the COVID-19 crisis to cost each Indian between INR 8,000 to 16,000 in 2025 of missed economic growth compared to a benchmark scenario of no pandemic, depending on the shape of the recovery. However, if the USD 270bn recent stimulus package addresses India’s structural weakness and is properly executed, India’s economy could even emerge stronger from the COVID-19 crisis.

Column

Exit uit de crisis: welk scenario kost wat? (Dutch)

Hoe snel wij herstellen uit de coronacrisis zal bepalend zijn voor de economische schade. Bij een V-vormig herstel ligt het verlies gemiddeld op 2.000 euro voor iedere Nederlander, maar bij een U-vormig herstel hebben we het al over een verdubbeling.

Special

Looking beyond the COVID-19 crisis

While we currently expect a V-shaped recovery for the global economy, there is a clear risk of a more U-shaped or even L-shaped recovery. There could also be effects on global growth beyond the 2021 horizon. We expect annual structural growth (up to 2030) in the US to drop from 1.6% to 1.4%. For the Netherlands, structural growth is set to decline from 1.3% to 1.1%.

Economic Comment

India: Extended lockdown causes further economic distress

Due to the extended lockdown until 3 May, we have revised our economic outlook and expect the Indian economy to contract by 8.7% in Q2 and the fiscal year 2020/21 to arrive at 1.2%. We also expect the RBI to cut policy rates by another 90 basis points in June, and it might initiate a cap on the reverse repo window or even adopt debt monetization.

Special

Scenario’s zijn onmisbaar bij voorspellen in crisistijd (Dutch)

Economische voorspellingen in crisistijd zijn nog onzekerder dan normaal. Daarom werken we met scenario-analyses. Voor de huidige crisis hebben wij aannames gemaakt over de lengte en omvang van de lockdown-maatregelen, het monetaire en begrotingsbeleid, de omvang van handelsbelemmeringen en structurele productiviteitseffecten.

Special

Global Economic Contraction: Re-assessing the impact of COVID-19

We have revised our economic forecasts and expect the global economy to contract by 2.6% in 2020. How quickly the economy recovers after the coronavirus crisis depends on how fast people get back to work and whether productivity growth is permanently damaged.

Economic Comment

India: COVID-19 impact revisited

We expect a sharp decline of the Indian economy in the second quarter of 2020 of -5.7% (y-o-y) due to the three-week lockdown and adverse trade effects. For calendar 2020 as a whole, we now expect growth at around 1.3% and for 2021 we expect a sharp rebound of 7.6%.