RaboResearch - Economic Research

Frank van Es

Senior Economist

Frank works as a senior economist at RaboResearch Netherlands.

He contributes to macroeconomic forecasts for the Netherlands as well as the rest of the world. In addition he contributes to scenario analyses for stress testing and IFRS.

Frank graduated in Economics at Utrecht University and followed a financial-economic traineeship at the central government. He worked for the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs, the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis and the Dutch Ministry of Finance.

Publications Frank van Es

Economic Report

Consumptiepatroon normaliseert, maar nog niet volledig (Dutch)

De versoepeling van de lockdown-maatregelen leidt tot enig herstel in het uitgavenpatroon van consumenten. Maar de huidige coronamaatregelen, angst voor het virus en economische impact van de coronacrisis houden volledige normalisatie tegen.

Special

Scenario’s zijn onmisbaar bij voorspellen in crisistijd (Dutch)

Economische voorspellingen in crisistijd zijn nog onzekerder dan normaal. Daarom werken we met scenario-analyses. Voor de huidige crisis hebben wij aannames gemaakt over de lengte en omvang van de lockdown-maatregelen, het monetaire en begrotingsbeleid, de omvang van handelsbelemmeringen en structurele productiviteitseffecten.

Special

Global Economic Contraction: Re-assessing the impact of COVID-19

We have revised our economic forecasts and expect the global economy to contract by 2.6% in 2020. How quickly the economy recovers after the coronavirus crisis depends on how fast people get back to work and whether productivity growth is permanently damaged.

Special

Backcasting the US economy with Dynamic Factor Models

Using Dynamic Factor Models (DFM) we try to backcast US macroeconomic variables. The composition and interpretation of the factors differ pre- and post-2008-crisis. In terms of backcasting accuracy the DFM outperforms the Autoregressive model pre-crisis, but not post-crisis.