RaboResearch - Economic Research

Erik-Jan van Harn

Data scientist Global Economics & Markets

Erik-Jan does research on the international economy and financial markets. He holds a degree in mathematics and quantitative finance.

Publications Erik-Jan van Harn

Economic Report Dutch version

COVID-19 pushes Germany into recession

At the start of 2020 sentiment indicators indicated a lacklustre growth for the Germany economy. The COVID-19 virus drastically changed that view however. We have revised our forecast from 0.5% to -0.3%. We forecast a recession in the second quarter of 2020.

Economic Comment

Eurozone economy: Neither icing nor a cake

The Eurozone economy grew by 0.1% in the final quarter of 2019. For 2020 we expect growth to remain lackluster. Domestic demand will slow as the business cycle has substantially advanced, whilst the external environment will remain weak.

Column

Economisch masochisme (Dutch)

Terwijl de Duitse economie op haar gat ligt en een stevige impuls kan gebruiken, presteren onze oosterburen het om een recordoverschot te behalen op de begroting. Nederland is dan dus ook onbetwist voorbijgesneld als zuinigste land van Europa.

Economic Update

France: Slow but steady economic growth

The French economy is growing slow and steady supported by a growth in domestic demand. The current protests affect consumer confidence but are unlikely to dent economic growth. For 2020 we expect a GDP growth of 1.1%.

Economic Comment

The transatlantic trade war: Plenty of topics to be upset about

Now that the phase one trade deal between the US and China has been signed, the US will shift its focus to the EU. US frustrations related to EU trade policy have been mounting recently. In addition, little progress has been made on US requests related to defense spending and the EU’s China policy.

Economic Quarterly Report

De twee gezichten van de eurozone (Dutch)

We verwachten dat de economie in de eurozone in 2020 met 1,0 procent en in 2021 met 0,8 procent groeit. De binnenlandse bestedingen stuwen de groei op, terwijl een lagere groei van de buitenlandse vraag de groei drukt.