RaboResearch - Economic Research

Erik-Jan van Harn

Macro strategist Global Economics & Markets

Erik-Jan does research on the international economy and financial markets. He holds a degree in mathematics and quantitative finance.

Publications Erik-Jan van Harn

Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version

Eurozone: K-shape recovery

We forecast that eurozone GDP will contract by 8.9% in 2020, followed by growth of 4.3% in 2021. The crisis widens the gap between countries, sectors and socio-economic classes.

Economic Comment

France: Economic recovery levelling off already?

The French economy shrank by a record breaking 13.8% in 2020 Q2. The third quarter promises a sharp rebound, but economic recovery seems to be levelling off already.

Economic Comment

Germany: Economic recovery?

The German economy shrank by a record breaking 10.1% in the second quarter, but still fared much better than European peers. We expect a technical recovery in the third quarter.

Economic Comment

Eurozone: Worst GDP contraction in history

The Eurozone economy shrank by a record breaking 12.1 percent in the second quarter. We expect a technical recovery in the third quarter given that economies have partially reopened.

Economic Report

Should India Print Money To Fight Covid-19?

Against the backdrop of a crippled economy and rising debt metrics, policymakers around the globe are adopting or considering unconventional monetary policy to solve the current state of emergency. For some countries, such as India, this would be a bad idea. We show that a major MMT fiscal package could push inflation up to 12% and the currency down by 25%.

Special

Money printing: First, do no harm

Can we just print extra money to tackle the corona crisis? We conclude that only seven (!) countries in the world meet our proposed MMT criteria: leaving aside the US, these countries need the rare combination of a sovereign currency, simultaneous fiscal deficit and current account surplus, plus good governance.