RaboResearch - Economic Research

Erik-Jan van Harn

Macro strategist Global Economics & Markets

Erik-Jan does research on the international economy and financial markets. He holds a degree in mathematics and quantitative finance.

Publications Erik-Jan van Harn

Special

Geopolitieke kansen en bedreigingen voor Nederland (Dutch)

De toenemende rol van geopolitiek in de economie brengt zowel bedreigingen als kansen met zich mee. Nederland heeft een goed uitgangspunt door zijn sterke concurrentiepositie maar ook kwetsbaarheden zoals de afhankelijkheid van bepaalde buitenlandse goederen en diensten.

Economic Comment

Germany: Additional containment measures

Germany will implement additional containment measures to prevent a further rise of infections from 16 December to 20 January. Non-essential shops, schools and barbers will have to close. Closing of non-essential shops could cost as much as EUR 3.5bn TVA in December and January.

Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version

Eurozone: Second wave delays economic recovery

We forecast the Eurozone economy to contract by 7.4% in 2020 and to grow with 3.9% in 2021. The economy will need more time to fully recover. Considerable uncertainty remains about the underlying damage done to companies in the COVID-19 crisis.

Economic Report

Germany: Second wave of infections inevitable

Although the number of new infections was limited at first, the situation is quickly worsening in Germany. Consequently, the government has imposed additional containment measures. We expect the government to continue to support the economy.

Economic Report

Eurozone economy enjoys technical rebound, but outlook is weak

The Eurozone economy grew by 12.7% q/q in Q3. Despite the strong economic rebound, economic activity is still substantially lower than pre-crisis. Going forward, the second wave and new round of lockdowns across the Eurozone undermine the recovery.

Economic Report

Kunnen financiële transfers de verschillen in de eurozone overbruggen? (Dutch)

De verschillen binnen de EMU zijn door de coronacrisis alleen maar vergroot. Niet alle landen hebben de financiële ruimte om dit verschil te verkleinen. Financiële transfers kunnen een oplossing vormen, maar zijn het meest effectief in combinatie met een stijging van de lonen in Noord-Europa.

Economic Report

What's the secret to Germany's handling of the pandemic?

There has been a surge of new infections in Europe, but in Germany and Italy the situation still seems to be under control for now. How is Germany handling the pandemic and what are the economic implications of these policies?

Special

Eurozone: Closing the gap through fiscal transfers?

Economic convergence is a prerequisite for a stable Eurozone in the long run, but this may be hard to achieve. In the short term it might be more rewarding to investigate the possibilities of narrowing the gap in competitiveness.

Special

European geopolitics: A more assertive EU?

So far the EU has often taken a backseat in international matters, but the EU is waking up to a new geopolitical reality. Has the EU become more assertive? And what role does Germany, as the natural leader of the bloc, play?