RaboResearch - Economic Research

Erik-Jan van Harn

Economist

Erik-Jan works as an economist at RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets.

He analyses economic developments in the Eurozone with a focus on Germany, France and the United Kingdom.

Erik-Jan studied Applied Mathematics at the University of Utrecht and Quantitative Finance & Actuarial Sciences at Tilburg University.

Publications Erik-Jan van Harn

Economic Report

Germany: Second wave of infections inevitable

Although the number of new infections was limited at first, the situation is quickly worsening in Germany. Consequently, the government has imposed additional containment measures. We expect the government to continue to support the economy.

Economic Report

Eurozone economy enjoys technical rebound, but outlook is weak

The Eurozone economy grew by 12.7% q/q in Q3. Despite the strong economic rebound, economic activity is still substantially lower than pre-crisis. Going forward, the second wave and new round of lockdowns across the Eurozone undermine the recovery.

Economic Report

Kunnen financiële transfers de verschillen in de eurozone overbruggen? (Dutch)

De verschillen binnen de EMU zijn door de coronacrisis alleen maar vergroot. Niet alle landen hebben de financiële ruimte om dit verschil te verkleinen. Financiële transfers kunnen een oplossing vormen, maar zijn het meest effectief in combinatie met een stijging van de lonen in Noord-Europa.

Economic Report

What's the secret to Germany's handling of the pandemic?

There has been a surge of new infections in Europe, but in Germany and Italy the situation still seems to be under control for now. How is Germany handling the pandemic and what are the economic implications of these policies?

Special

Eurozone: Closing the gap through fiscal transfers?

Economic convergence is a prerequisite for a stable Eurozone in the long run, but this may be hard to achieve. In the short term it might be more rewarding to investigate the possibilities of narrowing the gap in competitiveness.

Special

European geopolitics: A more assertive EU?

So far the EU has often taken a backseat in international matters, but the EU is waking up to a new geopolitical reality. Has the EU become more assertive? And what role does Germany, as the natural leader of the bloc, play?

Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version

Eurozone: K-shape recovery

We forecast that eurozone GDP will contract by 8.9% in 2020, followed by growth of 4.3% in 2021. The crisis widens the gap between countries, sectors and socio-economic classes.

Economic Comment

France: Economic recovery levelling off already?

The French economy shrank by a record breaking 13.8% in 2020 Q2. The third quarter promises a sharp rebound, but economic recovery seems to be levelling off already.

Economic Comment

Germany: Economic recovery?

The German economy shrank by a record breaking 10.1% in the second quarter, but still fared much better than European peers. We expect a technical recovery in the third quarter.