RaboResearch - Economic Research

Erik-Jan van Harn

Macro strategist Global Economics & Markets

Erik-Jan does research on the international economy and financial markets. He holds a degree in mathematics and quantitative finance.

Publications Erik-Jan van Harn

Special

The Third Round of French Elections

On June 12 and 19, the French will go to the ballot boxes for the legislative elections. Polls indicate that Macron’s center coalition is set to win a majority, but this is far from certain. If he isn’t able to secure a majority, his hands will be tied to a significant extent.

Economic Comment

France: A Second Term for Macron

Macron has won a second term as president of France. His first term was quite successful from an economic point of view and he is likely to push on with his reform agenda. The degree to which he is able to do so, is dependent on the outcome of the legislative elections in June.

Special

Ukraine war poses a threat to EU industry

The Ukraine war has sparked another supply chain crisis. EU industry will be impacted via higher prices of both energy and non-energy commodities, lengthened delivery times of inputs and possibly shortages. Germany and Italy are relatively vulnerable.

Special

Will Europe be left in the cold next winter?

The current energy crisis has highlighted the geopolitical risks associated with our dependence on Russian gas. The EU aims to become fully independent from Russian energy, but replacing Russian gas fully is easier said than done.

Special

Geopolitics is forcing Germany to rethink its economic model

The current crisis in the Ukraine brings latent problems for the German economic model to the fore. We argue that there are four options for Germany: Muddling on, engaging with the West, strategic autonomy within Europe and engaging with the East.

Special

Financiering staatsschuld is helemaal geen probleem (Dutch)

Kabinet Rutte IV geeft veel geld uit, maar financiering hiervan is geen probleem, in tegenstelling tot wat o.a. het CPB suggereert. Redenen zijn onder meer een spaaroverschot, een toekomstige belastingclaim op pensioenen en hogere groei door de investeringen in onderwijs en innovatie.

Economic Comment Dutch version

COVID-19 Economic Dashboard

Hard economic data usually comes available at quite some lag. To gauge the economic impact of COVID-19 we look at more timely economic indicators that are readily available. Data on traffic jams, international flights, and restaurant bookings are released sooner and more frequently. This helps us to better monitor the economic situation during the COVID-19 crisis.

Special

Nut en noodzaak van (publieke) kennisinvesteringen (Dutch)

De publieke kennisinvesteringen in Nederland blijven achter bij die in andere Europese landen en dit kost welvaart. Een pakket aan investeringen kan de economische groei met gemiddeld 0,5 procentpunt per jaar verhogen.