RaboResearch - Economic Research

Erik-Jan van Harn

Economist

Erik-Jan works as an economist at RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets.

He analyses economic developments in the Eurozone with a focus on Germany, France and the United Kingdom.

Erik-Jan studied Applied Mathematics at the University of Utrecht and Quantitative Finance & Actuarial Sciences at Tilburg University.

Publications Erik-Jan van Harn

Economic Comment

Eurozone: Worst GDP contraction in history

The Eurozone economy shrank by a record breaking 12.1 percent in the second quarter. We expect a technical recovery in the third quarter given that economies have partially reopened.

Economic Report

Should India Print Money To Fight Covid-19?

Against the backdrop of a crippled economy and rising debt metrics, policymakers around the globe are adopting or considering unconventional monetary policy to solve the current state of emergency. For some countries, such as India, this would be a bad idea. We show that a major MMT fiscal package could push inflation up to 12% and the currency down by 25%.

Economic Comment Dutch version

COVID-19 Economic Dashboard

Hard economic data usually comes available at quite some lag. To gauge the economic impact of COVID-19 we look at more timely economic indicators that are readily available. Data on traffic jams, international flights, and restaurant bookings are released sooner and more frequently. This helps us to better monitor the economic situation during the COVID-19 crisis.

Special

Money printing: First, do no harm

Can we just print extra money to tackle the corona crisis? We conclude that only seven (!) countries in the world meet our proposed MMT criteria: leaving aside the US, these countries need the rare combination of a sovereign currency, simultaneous fiscal deficit and current account surplus, plus good governance.

Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version

Eurozone: Risk of further north-south divergence

The Covid-crisis further widens the differences within the Eurozone. Southern member states have less fiscal space to spur economic recovery. Additionally, the composition of the economy makes these countries more vulnerable. For 2020 we forecast a GDP contraction of 9.1%.