RaboResearch - Economic Research

Elwin de Groot

Chief International Economist and eurozone-strategist

Elwin is Chief International Economist and eurozone-strategist at RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets.

Expertise: International and European economies, ECB and money markets, foreign exchange and interest rates

Experience: Senior Economist at Fortis Bank, researcher and project leader on regional economic issues at TNO-Inro (Dutch Organization for Applied Scientific Research). Master in Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam.

Profile: Elwin’s focus areas are the Eurozone and money markets. His drive comes from a fascination for what makes financial markets tick. And what is better than having a job in which you practice your hobby?

Elwin has almost twenty years of experience in economic research and regularly speaks with the (inter)national press, on television and for (large) clients of Rabobank. He has even experienced rising interest rates! Elwin is one of the Netherlands’ most well-known ‘ECB Watchers’ and brings to stage a large amount of experience, both in terms of economics and in terms of communication skills. Making complex matter understandable for a broad audience is one of his strengths. A lecture is only successful if clients feel that their perspective on the world has changed and that their voice has been heard.

 

Publications Elwin de Groot

Special

Eurozone recessions, a historical perspective

Against a backdrop of increasing talk about a new Eurozone recession, we first take a deep dive into the historical data. We show that since the 1960s there have basically been two types of recessions: common Eurozone recessions and idiosyncratic (country specific) recessions.

Economic Quarterly Report

Rente en valuta: ongefundeerd optimisme (Dutch)

Het optimisme in de financiële markten is in onze ogen niet houdbaar en wij zien weer lagere rentes in de loop van 2020. Terwijl het Britse pond het meeste positieve nieuws wel heeft verwerkt, blijft de dollar voorlopig sterk. Fed renteverlagingen zullen uiteindelijk wel op de dollar gaan wegen.

Special

Very dangerous European cars part II

Soon, President Trump will announce what to do with tariffs on EU cars. We think he will not hike tariffs just yet, but will keep the tariff threat alive. Within the EU, the German and Hungarian economy are most vulnerable to higher car tariffs in the US.

Special

US-China trade war: no turning back

The recent announcement from the US to further up the ante in the trade dispute with China clearly marks a new escalation in the trade war. If one takes China’s recent response into account, it’s hard to see either side trying to ease tensions at this stage.

Special

Post-EP elections: budgetary policy to the rescue?

Against the backdrop of limits to monetary policy, we investigate the issues at stake if budgetary policy were to take over the role of stimulus provider. Things have not been made easier by the EP election results, but we do see a few ways out.

Special

The US-China trade war in the rerun

The US has raised import tariffs from 10% to 25% on 200bn worth of Chinese goods shipped to US shores and China has vowed to retaliate. In this report, we assess the economic impact of these measures, as well as a scenario where the US-China trade war fully escalates.

Economic Comment

Eurozone: A gradual slowdown, mounting challenges

GDP of the Eurozone grew with 0.2% in the 4th quarter. France and Spain performed better than expected, but Italy entered a recession with two quarters of negative growth rates.