RaboResearch - Economic Research

Elwin de Groot

Head of macro strategy

Elwin de Groot covers the global economy and financial markets and is responsible for a team of international economists and macro strategists.

The European economy and financial markets, including ECB monetary policy are his key areas of attention. Being a seasoned speaker, Elwin gives many presentations and lectures for various client groups. He joined Rabobank in 2006. Before that he worked as a European economist at Fortis Bank. He started his career at the Dutch Institute for Applied Scientific Research, where he worked as a researcher and project manager. Elwin holds a Masters Degree in Economics at the Erasmus University of Rotterdam.

Publications Elwin de Groot

Special

Eurozone pent-up demand: big and decisive or over-estimated and uncertain?

A recovery in consumption this year seems all but certain, but expectations about its vigour – underpinned by the ‘pent-up demand’ narrative – could well be too optimistic. Although Eurozone households have stacked up some EUR600bn in additional saving since the pandemic, we argue that a sizeable part of those savings will probably stick. In this research note we explore three scenarios.

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Gaan we al dat spaargeld straks weer laten rollen? (Dutch)

Voor de economie gloort er eindelijk hoop. Komt er een stevig herstel van de economie? Den Haag en al die andere Europese regeringszetels moeten ervoor zorgen dat de consumptie snel en volledig kan herstellen zodat de economie niet alsnog knock-out gaat in de volgende ronde. Het activeren van het stuwmeer aan spaargeld kan daarbij een belangrijke rol spelen.

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Wat Europa kan leren van Japan (Dutch)

Japan stimuleert er al decennia op los, maar de inflatie blijft laag. Waarom zou Europa een andere uitkomst verwachten? De les van Japan is dat structurele hervormingen en hogere lonen nodig zijn voor hogere inflatie.

Special

Inflation: Ambient or transient?

Markets have been in the grips of ‘reflation’. Unless wage inflation picks up or governments stimulate beyond covid-19, the current upward forces on inflation will prove transient. Therefore, the ECB is expected to look through this rise in inflation.

Special

Implications of the EU China investment deal (CAI)

The EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) should improve EU companies’ access to China and ‘level’ the playing field. However, its commitments are ‘weak’ and the envisaged dispute resolution mechanism lacks teeth.

Special

Standoff over the EU budget can have large implications

Hungary and Poland are blocking the implementation of the EUR 750bn European crisis recovery fund. The risk is non-negligible that talks remain in deadlock in the short term. A protracted standoff could have serious economic and market implications.