RaboResearch - Economic Research

Elwin de Groot

Chief International Economist and eurozone-strategist

Elwin is Chief International Economist and eurozone-strategist at RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets.

Expertise: International and European economies, ECB and money markets, foreign exchange and interest rates

Experience: Senior Economist at Fortis Bank, researcher and project leader on regional economic issues at TNO-Inro (Dutch Organization for Applied Scientific Research). Master in Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam.

Profile: Elwin’s focus areas are the Eurozone and money markets. His drive comes from a fascination for what makes financial markets tick. And what is better than having a job in which you practice your hobby?

Elwin has almost twenty years of experience in economic research and regularly speaks with the (inter)national press, on television and for (large) clients of Rabobank. He has even experienced rising interest rates! Elwin is one of the Netherlands’ most well-known ‘ECB Watchers’ and brings to stage a large amount of experience, both in terms of economics and in terms of communication skills. Making complex matter understandable for a broad audience is one of his strengths. A lecture is only successful if clients feel that their perspective on the world has changed and that their voice has been heard.

 

Publications Elwin de Groot

Special

Looking beyond the COVID-19 crisis

While we currently expect a V-shaped recovery for the global economy, there is a clear risk of a more U-shaped or even L-shaped recovery. There could also be effects on global growth beyond the 2021 horizon. We expect annual structural growth (up to 2030) in the US to drop from 1.6% to 1.4%. For the Netherlands, structural growth is set to decline from 1.3% to 1.1%.

Special

Coronavirus: Outbreak of uncertainty

We outline four scenarios in which the coronavirus outbreak becomes increasingly severe and discuss the implications for China and the world economy.

Special

Economic implications of the coronavirus

The recent coronavirus outbreak will likely affect China’s economic growth, and could also have global ramifications. which will likely be more severe than compared to the SARS outbreak 17 years ago because China has become much bigger and more intertwined globally.

Special

Trade deal China-US: Phase One, Phase None

The Phase 1 trade deal signed by the US and China in January 2020 has created a temporary but unstable equilibrium. The deal could still collapse and a re-acceleration of trade tensions in 2020 remains our base scenario.