RaboResearch - Economic Research

Elwin de Groot

Chief International Economist and eurozone-strategist

Elwin is Chief International Economist and eurozone-strategist at RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets.

Expertise: International and European economies, ECB and money markets, foreign exchange and interest rates

Experience: Senior Economist at Fortis Bank, researcher and project leader on regional economic issues at TNO-Inro (Dutch Organization for Applied Scientific Research). Master in Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam.

Profile: Elwin’s focus areas are the Eurozone and money markets. His drive comes from a fascination for what makes financial markets tick. And what is better than having a job in which you practice your hobby?

Elwin has almost twenty years of experience in economic research and regularly speaks with the (inter)national press, on television and for (large) clients of Rabobank. He has even experienced rising interest rates! Elwin is one of the Netherlands’ most well-known ‘ECB Watchers’ and brings to stage a large amount of experience, both in terms of economics and in terms of communication skills. Making complex matter understandable for a broad audience is one of his strengths. A lecture is only successful if clients feel that their perspective on the world has changed and that their voice has been heard.

 

Publications Elwin de Groot

Column

Gaan we al dat spaargeld straks weer laten rollen? (Dutch)

Voor de economie gloort er eindelijk hoop. Komt er een stevig herstel van de economie? Den Haag en al die andere Europese regeringszetels moeten ervoor zorgen dat de consumptie snel en volledig kan herstellen zodat de economie niet alsnog knock-out gaat in de volgende ronde. Het activeren van het stuwmeer aan spaargeld kan daarbij een belangrijke rol spelen.

Column

Wat Europa kan leren van Japan (Dutch)

Japan stimuleert er al decennia op los, maar de inflatie blijft laag. Waarom zou Europa een andere uitkomst verwachten? De les van Japan is dat structurele hervormingen en hogere lonen nodig zijn voor hogere inflatie.

Special

Inflation: Ambient or transient?

Markets have been in the grips of ‘reflation’. Unless wage inflation picks up or governments stimulate beyond covid-19, the current upward forces on inflation will prove transient. Therefore, the ECB is expected to look through this rise in inflation.

Special

Implications of the EU China investment deal (CAI)

The EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) should improve EU companies’ access to China and ‘level’ the playing field. However, its commitments are ‘weak’ and the envisaged dispute resolution mechanism lacks teeth.

Special

Standoff over the EU budget can have large implications

Hungary and Poland are blocking the implementation of the EUR 750bn European crisis recovery fund. The risk is non-negligible that talks remain in deadlock in the short term. A protracted standoff could have serious economic and market implications.

Special

European geopolitics: A more assertive EU?

So far the EU has often taken a backseat in international matters, but the EU is waking up to a new geopolitical reality. Has the EU become more assertive? And what role does Germany, as the natural leader of the bloc, play?

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EU recovery fund: What will be the impact?

The European Commission presented a recovery fund for the EU. Although there a quite some hurdles to be taken, a compromise does not look out of reach. The pooling of liabilities is further completes the European capital market.

Special

Looking beyond the COVID-19 crisis

While we currently expect a V-shaped recovery for the global economy, there is a clear risk of a more U-shaped or even L-shaped recovery. There could also be effects on global growth beyond the 2021 horizon. We expect annual structural growth (up to 2030) in the US to drop from 1.6% to 1.4%. For the Netherlands, structural growth is set to decline from 1.3% to 1.1%.