RaboResearch - Economic Research

Björn Giesbergen

Economist

Björn Giesbergen works as an economist and country analyst at RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets.

He focuses on the economic and political developments in China and a number of other East Asian countries. Björn regularly lectures on economic themes to Rabobank clients.

He previously worked as a trainee at the Ministry of Finance. Björn studied International Economics and Finance at Tilburg University and Economics at the University of Amsterdam.

Publications Björn Giesbergen

Economic Report

China: how realistic is the government’s growth target?

China’s 6.7% GDP growth was on government’s track in 2016, but lower growth is expected ahead as focus will rely more and more on risk prevention amid excessive credit levels, a housing market bubble, and capital outflows.

Economic Report

The (potential) impact of Trump on Asia Pacific

Trump’s policy regarding Asia presents a downside risk for APAC’s economy and security situation. If the US increase trade barriers, this is expected to have major implications for the region. Even more so if there would be protectionist retaliations.

Special

Unleashing China and India’s growth potential (1): productivity growth

China and India have to foster productivity growth in order to avoid getting stuck in the middle income trap. The implementation of an ambitious innovation, education and institutional reform agenda would enable both countries to become the world’s new global growth catalysts.

Economic Report

Will China be the world's new growth catalyst?

China can move up to the center stage of the global economy, if it succeeds in fostering innovation, human capital and the quality of institutions. The economic gains could be as high as USD 6.5 trn of additional value added in 2025, which is equivalent to one-third of US GDP.

Special

Nederland in recessie als Chinese huizenbubbel barst (Dutch)

Een huizenmarktcrisis in China kan grote gevolgen hebben voor Nederland. Een Chinese huizenmarktcrisis met een verondersteld bbp-verlies van ruwweg 20 procent zou in Nederland leiden tot een cumulatief verlies van 6 procent. Dit is de helft van het verlies in Nederland na de Grote Recessie.

Special

How serious is China’s housing market bubble?

Housing prices in China have been rising rapidly since the beginning of 2015 and it is the question whether or not this is supported by economic fundamentals. Possible negative economic consequences might be severe, since 12% of Chinese urban inhabitants live in ‘bubble-cities’.