RaboResearch - Economic Research

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Video

India: 2019 Economic Outlook - video

In 2019, we expect the Indian economy to continue to be the global outperformer in terms of economic growth. There are however substantial downside risks, such as a defeat of Modi’s BJP in the general election and an escalation of the US-China trade war.

Special

The US recession of 2020

The recent flattening of US treasury yield curve has activated our early warning system. Our model now gives a 69% chance of a recession by May 2020 and is increasingly pointing at 2020 as the year of the next recession.

Economic Comment

Brexit Update: It's the turn of the UK Parliament now

The United Kingdom Parliament finally gets their turn on Brexit. In the evening of 15 January the MP’s will vote on the EU-UK deal and we expect that they will reject the current deal. That will push the UK into several weeks of political turbulence.

Economic Report

Spain: Strong recovery does not justify complacency

To preserve healthy economic growth rates in the medium term, the Spanish government should speed up the labour market recovery and deal with remaining challenges. Elections in 2019 could break the reform deadlock, but not necessarily in a positive way.