If the Democrats win both run-off elections in Georgia this would open the door to a large fiscal stimulus package and more expansive fiscal policy in the coming years. This would reduce the pressure on the Fed to provide more monetary stimulus through asset purchases.
On November 15th, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) was signed, but India decided to opt out. Many consider this a policy mistake, but we argue that India’s choice is actually quite rational.
Democrats and Republicans have finally passed a bill on a new Covid-19 relief package which was signed into law by President Trump on Sunday. The size of the fiscal package is estimated at almost $900 billion, although about half of that is money recycled from the CARES Act.
The emerging markets heatmap provides a comprehensive overview of the relative vulnerability of eighteen emerging markets. Results show that Asian countries are in relatively good shape, while Latin American countries are most vulnerable.
Economic Quarterly Report
We made small downward revisions to our projections for the Dutch economy following the announcement of a hard lockdown on December 14.
Germany will implement additional containment measures to prevent a further rise of infections from 16 December to 20 January. Non-essential shops, schools and barbers will have to close. Closing of non-essential shops could cost as much as EUR 3.5bn TVA in December and January.
Despite reversing the downward trend in September and October, China is still miles behind the target. There is a clear divergence on the progress towards targets for agricultural and energy imports, and manufacturing and services imports.
Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version
Following the economic decline of an estimated 4.2 percent this year, we expect the economy to grow by 2.4 percent in both 2021 and 2022. Unemployment is expected to rise to 5.5 percent by the end of 2021.