Looking ahead, we expect growth figures will move toward more ‘normal’ readings. The economy is facing headwinds, mainly from supply-side constraints, such as labor shortages, supply chain disruptions, and low availability of (raw) inputs.
To “keep the 1.5°C target alive” within COP26, we need more stringent targets for 2030, not only for 2050. Progress could come from new methane emissions targets and through advancements in discussions on Paris Agreement Rulebook and climate finance.
The Australian economy is set to contract in Q3, modestly rebounding in Q4. Inflation risk are likely, as gas and freight prices rise steeply. Australia must balance existing economic ties to China with increasing geostrategic ties to the west.
Most Dutch sectors had a good second quarter. The outlook is also favorable but there are concerns about shortages of materials and labor.
Budget Day 2021 brought the Dutch hydrogen ambition a small step closer. A national hydrogen infrastructure will be created and the offshore wind target will potentially increase by 10 GW. However, no additional subsidy for green hydrogen production was announced.
The Dutch economy is recovering stronger than previously expected. And even though the government paved the way for economic recovery by support packages, the on Budget Day presented plans lack strategy and vision on housing shortages and climate change.
Growth of 20.1% in India in Q2 is misleading, as economic output was disrupted by a second Covid-19 outbreak. Going forward, we expect an economic recovery as restrictions ease and mobility increases, fostering consumption and investments.
The Social Democrats are in pole position to lead Germany’s next coalition government, but protracted negotiations seem likely. A best guess is that Scholz will eventually lead a ‘Traffic light’ coalition of the SPD, the Greens and the FDP. There are, however, considerable divides to bridge and it could potentially take months before the successor to Merkel is finally decided.
US and European natural gas prices have jumped to multi-year highs; to the extent that comparisons with the 1970’s oil crises are perhaps not as far-fetched as some would think.
In October we could see both a US government shutdown and a government default if the spending and debt bill approved by the House of Representatives on Tuesday does not pass the Senate. This is a game of chicken between Democrats and Republicans that is completely unnecessary.