We expect Indian GDP to contract by -8.4% (y/y) in fiscal 20/21 and grow by 9.7% (y/y) in fiscal 21/22. The INR is projected to appreciate in tandem with the expected global economic recovery and boosted by optimistic global investor sentiment.
On January 6, Trump supporters stormed Congress. The ever increasing polarization of US politics and society has reached a level that poses a serious threat to the stability of the country. If the US does not find an off-ramp from this route, we are only going to see a further escalation of civil unrest.
The EU-UK trade agreement marks the start of a complex relationship in which the UK and the EU will have to learn to live together separately. This won’t be without frictions.
If the Democrats win both run-off elections in Georgia this would open the door to a large fiscal stimulus package and more expansive fiscal policy in the coming years. This would reduce the pressure on the Fed to provide more monetary stimulus through asset purchases.
On November 15th, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) was signed, but India decided to opt out. Many consider this a policy mistake, but we argue that India’s choice is actually quite rational.
Democrats and Republicans have finally passed a bill on a new Covid-19 relief package which was signed into law by President Trump on Sunday. The size of the fiscal package is estimated at almost $900 billion, although about half of that is money recycled from the CARES Act.
The emerging markets heatmap provides a comprehensive overview of the relative vulnerability of eighteen emerging markets. Results show that Asian countries are in relatively good shape, while Latin American countries are most vulnerable.
Economic Quarterly Report
We made small downward revisions to our projections for the Dutch economy following the announcement of a hard lockdown on December 14.