January 12, 2021 Economic Report

India Economic Outlook 2021: The only certainty is uncertainty

We expect Indian GDP to contract by -8.4% (y/y) in fiscal 20/21 and grow by 9.7% (y/y) in fiscal 21/22. The INR is projected to appreciate in tandem with the expected global economic recovery and boosted by optimistic global investor sentiment.

January 11, 2021 Economic Report

United States: Insurrection at the US Capitol

On January 6, Trump supporters stormed Congress. The ever increasing polarization of US politics and society has reached a level that poses a serious threat to the stability of the country. If the US does not find an off-ramp from this route, we are only going to see a further escalation of civil unrest.

January 07, 2021 Special

Brexit: Living apart together

The EU-UK trade agreement marks the start of a complex relationship in which the UK and the EU will have to learn to live together separately. This won’t be without frictions.

January 05, 2021 Economic Report

United States: The Georgia Bifurcation

If the Democrats win both run-off elections in Georgia this would open the door to a large fiscal stimulus package and more expansive fiscal policy in the coming years. This would reduce the pressure on the Fed to provide more monetary stimulus through asset purchases.

December 29, 2020 Economic Report

Why India is wise not to join RCEP

On November 15th, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) was signed, but India decided to opt out. Many consider this a policy mistake, but we argue that India’s choice is actually quite rational.

December 28, 2020 Special

United States: Billions toward Covid-19 relief

Democrats and Republicans have finally passed a bill on a new Covid-19 relief package which was signed into law by President Trump on Sunday. The size of the fiscal package is estimated at almost $900 billion, although about half of that is money recycled from the CARES Act.

December 22, 2020 Economic Update

Emerging markets vulnerability heatmap

The emerging markets heatmap provides a comprehensive overview of the relative vulnerability of eighteen emerging markets. Results show that Asian countries are in relatively good shape, while Latin American countries are most vulnerable.

December 18, 2020 Economic Report Dutch version

The Basics of Advanced Recycling

There is pressure to address the problem of plastic packaging waste. Advanced recycling is mentioned as a promising solution and can complement existing recycling methods, accelerating the transition to a circular economy.

December 17, 2020 Economic Quarterly Report

Slightly less favorable economic outlook due to hard lockdown

We made small downward revisions to our projections for the Dutch economy following the announcement of a hard lockdown on December 14.