Scenario analyses shows that a surge in oil prices results in a global economic loss of 0.4ppts-0.9ppts between 2018 and 2022. The economic impact, however, is very unevenly distributed among countries. We distinguish three groups: the vulnerable ones, the lucky ones, and the uncomfortable ones.
Economic Report Dutch version
President Mattarella has approved a Five Star-League government. The government has the intention to go on a spending spree and intensify opposition against Brussels, but not to leave the Eurozone. The risk, though, cannot be fully neglected.
The short-term economic impact of the current political turmoil is limited. Italy will likely keep the Euro, but a government with Five Star and the League could severely damage debt sustainability and longer term growth prospects.
The choice of the UK to leave the EU will have significant consequences for trade between the EU and the UK and will affect many companies. Our Brexit Monitor tracks the latest Brexit developments and anticipates on further progress.