The economic costs of a Brexit in 2030 are expected to range between GBP 400bn (hard Brexit) and GBP 260bn (soft Brexit), compared to a scenario where the UK would continue to be a member of the EU (Bremain). This equals £11,500 - £7,500 per British worker.
Dutch coalition partners finally announce their plans. The plans feature changes to the tax system that should encourage labour supply. Tax cuts and extra spending result in deterioration in fiscal balance, but the fiscal outlook remains healthy.
Latin American currencies have outperformed USD this year with carry providing a notable boost. MXN was a notable outperformer. Performance will be good if volatility remains low. A surge in risk aversion could lead to rapid carry trade unwinds.
Anti-establishment sentiment is growing in Latin America, just like elsewhere on the back of a growing and increasingly vocal middle class. Latin America continues to shift away from populism and policy is becoming more constructive.
Having reached rock bottom in 2016, Latin American economies are performing better in 2017. Most countries have fared well the adverse period, though fiscal positions have weakened across the board.
The short term outlook for F&A commodities is defined by volatility. In the long term, growing Chinese demand bodes well for F&A exports. Brazil seems well placed to benefit from this.