Infographic of the Economic Quarterly.
China’s 6.7% GDP growth was on government’s track in 2016, but lower growth is expected ahead as focus will rely more and more on risk prevention amid excessive credit levels, a housing market bubble, and capital outflows.
The Dutch Tweede Kamer elections are two weeks away. Our previous publication with three scenarios for the likely result is still current. But how accurate are the polls?
While executive orders allow the President to act unilaterally, the US political system has several checks and balances in place that give the Congress and the courts the power to derail or overturn his decisions. Trade conflicts are the main downside risk of Trump’s executive orders.
Trump’s policy regarding Asia presents a downside risk for APAC’s economy and security situation. If the US increase trade barriers, this is expected to have major implications for the region. Even more so if there would be protectionist retaliations.
China and India have to foster productivity growth in order to avoid getting stuck in the middle income trap. The implementation of an ambitious innovation, education and institutional reform agenda would enable both countries to become the world’s new global growth catalysts.
China can move up to the center stage of the global economy, if it succeeds in fostering innovation, human capital and the quality of institutions. The economic gains could be as high as USD 6.5 trn of additional value added in 2025, which is equivalent to one-third of US GDP.