RaboResearch - Economic Research

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Country Report

United Kingdom (Country report)

The UK economic recovery is struggling amid the harsh fiscal squeeze. A significant slowdown in the pace of recovery, which will possibly have adverse spill-over effects to the banking sector, is a major risk, in our view.

Country Report

Luxembourg (Country report)

Luxembourg's solid economic performance and creditworthiness (i.e. ample financial cushion) shall remain underpinned by a strong public sector balance sheet and exceptionally high levels of prosperity (per capita income was USD 90,000 in 2010).

Country Report

United States of America (Country report)

The US economic recovery is expected to continue this and next year, but is very dependent on continued fiscal and monetary stimulus. As a result of the further fiscal stimulus, the budget deficit is set to increase this year relative to 2010.

Country Report

Portugal (Country report)

The Portuguese economy is heading back to recession. After the fall of the government and with serious upward revisions to the public deficit and debt numbers, financial markets lost further confidence, pushing up the interest rate on government bonds to unsustainable levels.

Country Report

Italy (Country report)

The Italian economy has many structural weaknesses, leading to low economic growth before recession and now to a very sluggish recovery. The government deficit is estimated to have been better than expected in 2010, and compares favourably to a number of other European countries.

Country Report

The Netherlands (Country Report)

The Netherlands has weathered the crisis relatively well. The Dutch economy shrunk in 2009 by 3.9%, and has by now made up half of that loss.

Country Report

Mexico (Country report)

The Mexican economy recovered strongly from the global economic crisis, posting 5.5% real economic growth last year. Benefitting from Mexico’s strong trade linkages with the US, exports initially drove the recovery, while domestic demand remained relatively tempered due to sluggish real wage growth, lower remittances from the US and remaining spare capacity.

Country Report

Austria (Country report)

Overall, the difficulties that the government could face from an outright crisis in the CEE countries have abated. And the confirmation of the AAA status of the sovereign by the rating agencies on the back of a relatively strong fiscal position will give the government enough room to support the banks should the need arise.