The choice of the UK to leave the EU will have significant consequences for trade between the EU and the UK and will affect many companies. Our Brexit Monitor tracks the latest Brexit developments and anticipates on further progress.
Dutch Housing Market Quarterly Dutch version
While we still expect house prices to increase substantially this year, sales activities seem to reached a turning point on the Dutch housing market. Hampered by an increasing scarcity of homes in almost all regions, we have adjusted our 2018 sales forecast from 250,000 to 235,000 homes, a decline of 3% compared to 2017.
In this publication we look at three different indications pointing at increasing US recessionary risks. Our treasury yield curve model suggests a 27% probability of a recession in the 17-month window. This probability is much higher than the recession expectation of the NY Fed.
Economic Comment Dutch version
In the first quarter of 2018 the Eurozone economy grew by 0.4% compared to the previous quarter, after 0.7% quarterly growth in the final quarter of last year. This growth moderation is unlikely to derail the ECB’s timeline for policy normalisation.
Economic Update Dutch version
Spain’s economy has started the year on a strong footing with 0.7% quarterly growth. We expect the economy to grow with 2.8% in 2018 compared to just above 2% growth in the Eurozone. The Catalan crisis has had limited economic impact so far.