We have revised our economic projections for India downwards and expect the economy to contract by 2.9% in fiscal 2020/21. The economic stimulus package of 20 lakh crore is expected to prop up growth this fiscal year by 1.8ppts, but more unconventional policy measures (such as debt monetization) seem necessary.
The United States might be stuck with a so-called ‘six-foot economy’ for a considerable period of time in order to prevent a re-emergence of the COVID-19 virus. Our main finding is that 23% of all US jobs might face problems to adapt to such an economy. Occupations in healthcare (60% vulnerable jobs), air transport (59%) and the hospitality sector (49%) are especially vulnerable.
We think most ASEAN economies will enter a deep recession this year, with only a modest recovery next year.
We expect the COVID-19 crisis to cost each Indian between INR 8,000 to 16,000 in 2025 of missed economic growth compared to a benchmark scenario of no pandemic, depending on the shape of the recovery. However, if the USD 270bn recent stimulus package addresses India’s structural weakness and is properly executed, India’s economy could even emerge stronger from the COVID-19 crisis.
Markets and media are focused on everything related to Covid-19, yet the Brexit-clock ticks away in the background. The first real deadlines are nearing fast. There are plenty of compelling arguments to extend the transition period; we challenge the conventional wisdom and look for reasons why the UK government would not ask for more time.
Economic Report Dutch version
Spain’s economy suffered a major blow in Q1 due to COVID-19. GDP contracted by 5.2%, much sharper than during the GFC. The outlook for Q2 is far worse. The path of recovery is clouded by a vulnerable sectoral composition and large demand fallout.
The BoJ’s new stimulus measures will not prevent a deep recession in Japan. In addition, we believe Japan will see negative inflation this year.
Special Dutch version
The Eurozone economy contracted by 3.8% in Q1 due to COVID-19. France, Spain and Italy fared substantially worse. While very weak, these figures are still only the tip of the iceberg. The contraction in Q2 will be considerably sharper.