RaboResearch - Economic Research

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Economic Comment

The next US recession

The US yield curve is getting flatter, which means that long term rates are only slightly higher than short term rates. We expect the yield curve to invert in 2019, which means that long rates fall below short rates. This would signal a recession in 2020.

Economic Report

Brexit Update: Deal done?

The EU council approved the EU-UK Brexit deal on 25 November. The document sets out the divorce conditions. It also includes an outline of the envisaged future economic partnership in the appendix. The approval of the UK parliament is still pending.

Economic Comment

Brexit Update: The finals

The United Kingdom and the EU have reached a deal in the Brexit negotiations. Unfortunately the road to an orderly Brexit remains a bumpy one and getting the deal approved by the UK Parliament is the main challenge.