RaboResearch - Economic Research

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Economic Report

National emergency on the US-Mexico border

President Trump declared a national emergency on the US-Mexico border that will allow him to divert funds to build the wall. The Democrats are likely to challenge this decision, bringing the country closer to a constitutional crisis.

Economic Report

Very dangerous cars

Trump received the report into whether automotive imports are a threat to the US national security. Although the conclusion of the report has not been released yet, it is likely that Trump now has 90 days to decide on imposing tariffs on imports related to cars.

Special

Should the ECB consider issuing its own securities?

The ECB could use Central Bank Securities too mop up liquidity. The use of this instrument may bring the additional advantage of the creation of a EMU-wide ‘safe asset’. This may bring advantages for the stability of the Eurozone.

Column Dutch version

Structural confusion

Assessing US tax cuts, Italian public spending, and Fed or ECB policy all require a distinction between the 'cyclical' and 'structural'. But even when you who know the difference, it is easy to make a policy mistake.

Special

Nowcasting the Indian economy

In this Special we present our new nowcasting methodology for the Indian economy. Our combined model predicts an economic growth for calendar 2018Q4 of 6.3%, which would imply a significant slowdown of economic activity after the already disappointing GDP print of 7.1% in Q3.