On June 12 and 19, the French will go to the ballot boxes for the legislative elections. Polls indicate that Macron’s center coalition is set to win a majority, but this is far from certain. If he isn’t able to secure a majority, his hands will be tied to a significant extent.
Another revision to our Eurozone forecast brings into question the timing of peak inflation and how fast it will decline afterwards. Commodities and supply chains cannot fully explain recent inflation surprises, suggesting that some of this may be structural.
Macron has won a second term as president of France. His first term was quite successful from an economic point of view and he is likely to push on with his reform agenda. The degree to which he is able to do so, is dependent on the outcome of the legislative elections in June.
High inflation keeps a grip on the Dutch economy. Economic growth is leveling off, but we do not expect a recession. The war in Ukraine is the largest source of uncertainty.
The EU is further tightening the thumbscrews on Russia. In this updated scenario analysis we take a closer look at the economic impact of an energy import ban. A decline in Eurozone GDP over the next four quarters seems all but given now.
Given the EU reliance on Russian fossil fuels, the war in Ukraine impacts the speed of the energy transition. This article maps the main impacts and whether the measures adopted to mitigate them may delay or accelerate the energy transition.
It’s hard to underestimate the relevance of stationary energy storage for the energy transition. This note outlines what stationary energy storage is, shows various storage technologies and predicts where the market will boom in coming years.
The Ukraine war has sparked another supply chain crisis. EU industry will be impacted via higher prices of both energy and non-energy commodities, lengthened delivery times of inputs and possibly shortages. Germany and Italy are relatively vulnerable.
Yield curve inversions are often seen as warning signals of a recession, but a statistical analysis suggests that these signals should be interpreted with care. We provide the thresholds that would indicate a probability of a recession higher than 50%.
We were moderately positive about 2022, despite growing concerns about the high inflation prints. But that was all before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.