Soon, President Trump will announce what to do with tariffs on EU cars. We think he will not hike tariffs just yet, but will keep the tariff threat alive. Within the EU, the German and Hungarian economy are most vulnerable to higher car tariffs in the US.
Dutch Housing Market Quarterly Dutch version
The third quarter of 2019 was dominated by higher sales and lower growth in house prices. However, this levelling off is slower than expected, partly due to lower mortgage interest rates and a persistent housing shortage.
Spain’s elections failed to solve the deadlock in parliament. Scraping a majority will be extremely difficult. The stalemate will not sent the economy into crisis, but it prevents that the economy and public finances from being prepared for one.
Sunday’s elections in Spain are unlikely to break the deadlock in parliament. The economy will continue to grow relatively fast in the short term, but growth is slowing while unemployment is still high and public finances weak.
Trouble in the German economy has more structural groundings than just the trade war. The aging population will have a significant downward effect. We compute the impact of two investment packages for R&D, education and infrastructure.
In our Where Will They Go index (including market size), India tops the list of countries that might benefit from the US-China trade war. The current economic slump weighs on India’s attractiveness as investment destination, which required the government to act by launching structural reforms.
Economic Update Dutch version
The Dutch economy is slowing down. Consumption is still on track, but the persisting industrial weakness and the growth slowdown in Dutch imports and exports point toward an economic slowdown.
The Eurozone economy grew with 0.2% in 19Q3. At first sight maybe little to cheer about, but given the trade tensions and ailing manufacturing sector, worth a minor celebration. Maybe more importantly, for now this is as good as it gets.