RaboResearch - Economic Research
The Netherlands: Economic growth to slow in the coming years
Elections for European Parliament will be a key political event in 2019
Brexit Update: It's the turn of the UK Parliament now
Homes in the Netherlands keep getting more expensive; in other countries prices are declining
Geopolitical risks
The impact of Trump
Brexit updates and economic impact
The Greek debt crisis: developments from start till end
Most recent
Economic Report
Eurozone: Revisiting growth
The disappointing recovery of the German car sector, the yellow vests in France and slowing external demand lead to a downward revision of our growth figures for 2018Q4 and 2019Q1.
Special
The US recession of 2020
The recent flattening of US treasury yield curve has activated our early warning system. Our model now gives a 69% chance of a recession by May 2020 and is increasingly pointing at 2020 as the year of the next recession.
Economic Comment
Brexit Update: It's the turn of the UK Parliament now
The United Kingdom Parliament finally gets their turn on Brexit. In the evening of 15 January the MP’s will vote on the EU-UK deal and we expect that they will reject the current deal. That will push the UK into several weeks of political turbulence.
Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version
The Netherlands: Economic growth to slow in the coming years
The Dutch economy is approaching its limits due to a tight labour market, while imported uncertainty is hindering business investment. This may be the last chance for policymakers to fix the roof while the sun is shining.
Special Dutch version
The global economy needs a new currency anchor
The US dollar has been the global anchor currency since 1944. This gives the US certain advantages, but it also brings negative consequences for international stability. The global economy needs a new anchor, independent from an individual country.
Economic Report
Spain: Strong recovery does not justify complacency
To preserve healthy economic growth rates in the medium term, the Spanish government should speed up the labour market recovery and deal with remaining challenges. Elections in 2019 could break the reform deadlock, but not necessarily in a positive way.
Economic Comment
Brexit Monitor: The only certainty is uncertainty for the start of 2019
We have a deal, but are also closer than ever to a ‘hard Brexit’. The EU and the UK reached an agreement on the divorce conditions on 14 November. Now both the EU and the UK have to ratify the deal before 29 March 2019 to realise an orderly Brexit and start the transition period.
Economic Comment
Germany: will the fourth quarter of 2018 bring bad news as well?
The German economy is gradually losing momentum. Car sales are recovering, but damage of the third quarter of 2018 has not been repaired yet. Declining IFO indices also point at lower growth, but not a recession.
Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version
Global economic outlook: The economy has peaked
Global growth will decline moderately in the coming years, both in advanced and emerging market economies. Persistent risks such as escalation of the trade war or a disorderly Brexit are a permanent concern in this slowdown.
