April 23, 2021 Special

How to prevent a too restrictive fiscal policy in Europe?

The ECB has acquired a large part of the public debt of EMUs member states. This debt has lost its monetary significance. It would be a big mistake of future fiscal policy doesn't take this into account.

April 23, 2021 Economic Comment Dutch version

COVID-19 Economic Dashboard

Hard economic data usually comes available at quite some lag. To gauge the economic impact of COVID-19 we look at more timely economic indicators that are readily available. Data on traffic jams, international flights, and restaurant bookings are released sooner and more frequently. This helps us to better monitor the economic situation during the COVID-19 crisis.

April 20, 2021 Economic Report

China GDP growth outlook: Still recovering, but losing steam

China’s Q1 GDP growth surged to 18.3% on a year-to-year basis, mainly due to the low base in Q1 2020. We think the pace of the recovery will slow as the initial pent up demand in China dies out and policy support is scaled back.

April 12, 2021 Special

Comparing G20’s cash canon in 2020

Advanced G20 countries have really fired up the cash canon compared to emerging G20 economies during Covid-19. But without this sizeable government spending by both the advanced and the emerging G20 countries, G20’s total contraction could have been four times more severe.

April 06, 2021 Economic Report

United States: American Jobs Plan

President Biden has presented his American Jobs Plan, which amounts to about $2 trillion in spending on infrastructure and care. This should be financed by raising the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21% and by other tax measures aimed at corporations.

April 01, 2021 Economic Comment

China: Rising tensions

The rising tensions between China, the EU, US, UK and Canada could have wide implications, from hurting the chances of ratifying the recent EU China investment deal to effects on the global supply of cotton.

April 01, 2021 Economic Report

India: Second wave and vacci”notion”

India showed 0.4% GDP growth in Q3 of FY21. Unfortunately a second wave of Covid cases is on the rise, which might hamper growth in the next months. Although vaccine implementation started mid-January, the pace of vaccination must accelerate if India is to reap economic benefits in 2021. Fortunately, availability of vaccines is not a constraint.

March 23, 2021 Special

China’s Five-Year Plan: Ambitious aims meet tricky trade-offs

China’s new five year plan is ambitious, yet it contains inherent trade-offs. When push comes to shove, we believe China will sacrifice growth for resilience and deleveraging for domestic stability.

March 17, 2021 Special

United States: American Rescue Plan

President Biden has delivered a large covid relief package within the first 100 days of his administration that will support Americans at least through early September. By not fully exploring the bipartisan route, Biden has limited the type of policies that he can get through Congress going forward.