RaboResearch - Economic Research

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Economic Report

Is the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) making a policy error?

We believe the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is making a policy error after the last MPC meeting by keeping its policy rates on hold. There is a risk that the RBI is underestimating the inflationary pressure in the Indian economy and the impact of the ongoing Fed tightening cycle.

Economic Update

France’s 2019 budget to reduce size of government

French President Macron struggles with low approval ratings and decreasing economic confidence, despite a strong parliamentary mandate for reform and upward economic potential. The 2019 budget proposal reduces the size of government, modest improvements in public finances and stimulus for private demand.

Economic Comment

De-dramatising Salzburg

The Brexit summit of EU leaders in Salzburg on 19-20 September ended up in a drama. That is not justified but it suggests the EU and the UK lack a good understanding of each other and that raises the odds of a ‘Hard Brexit’ by accident.

Column

There is no such thing as a costless Brexit

Leaving the EU has direct and structural economic costs for the UK, irrespective of how the country leaves the EU. The magnitude of the impact depends on the future trade relationship they will negotiate with the EU, and a transition period could soften the blow. From that perspective it is not reassuring that with six months left before ‘Brexit day’ the UK is still divided over the Brexit objectives.