Economic Comment Dutch version
Hard economic data usually comes available at quite some lag. To gauge the economic impact of COVID-19 we look at more timely economic indicators that are readily available. Data on traffic jams, international flights, and restaurant bookings are released sooner and more frequently. This helps us to better monitor the economic situation during the COVID-19 crisis.
Dutch Housing Market Quarterly Dutch version
House prices are expected to rise by 14.4% this year and by a further 11.5% in 2022. With the increase greatest in Flevoland and smallest in Amsterdam.
Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version
We expect the Dutch economy to grow by 4.2 percent this year. The recovery is stronger than in other European countries. It is sensible to phase out the generic support measures and will not lead to a large increase in unemployment.
The reopening of the economy has spurred economic activity in the services sector. In Q2 GDP grew with 2.8%. The recovery is set to continue with again strong albeit slowing growth rates in the coming quarters. GDP will reach its pre-crisis level end- 2022.
The transmission of the delta variant and low vaccination rates in Australia, have turned Australia from a frontrunner into a laggard. We have revised our economic forecast for 2021 downwards, as a result of the economic spillover effects of the current wave of, and projected, infections in Q3 and Q4.
Household consumption and exports have further increased. Additionally we expect the factors causing upward inflation to be temporary.
Tensions between the EU and China have increased considerably and some decoupling is likely. With a vulnerability heat map, we show that a sharp deterioration of EU-China relations would have negative implications for the entire EU, but mostly for Germany.