Dutch Housing Market Quarterly Dutch version
Although house prices continue to rise, we expect rising interest rates and a weakening economy to slow the pace of price growth.
PPAs are on the rise in Europe, as such contracts are an increasingly popular way of financing the deployment of renewables. However, the growth in this market is not hurdle free. High power market volatility pushes players to rethink their strategies.
Economic Quarterly Report
We anticipate a mild recession for the Netherlands in the last quarter of 2022 and first quarter of 2023. Unemployment is expected to rise only moderately.
The economy of the United Kingdom experiences a ‘European’ demand shock but also has ‘American’ labour shortages. Weak growth and high inflation is the result. Meanwhile, there is a constant threat of a trade war with the European Union.
A recession seems inevitable for the US: even if the economy is able to absorb the exogenous shocks to the supply side, the response of the central bank to the wage-price spiral will cause a recession from within.
Spanish inflation is becoming ever more broad-based and rapidly eating into households’ purchasing power. This will dent consumer spending once the reopening boost fades. GDP growth will slow over the coming quarters and turn negative towards year-end.
EU leaders have agreed to ban all Russian seaborne oil imports. The ban, amid already high inflation, intense supply chain pressure and tightening financial conditions, will push the Eurozone into a recession.
On June 12 and 19, the French will go to the ballot boxes for the legislative elections. Polls indicate that Macron’s center coalition is set to win a majority, but this is far from certain. If he isn’t able to secure a majority, his hands will be tied to a significant extent.
Another revision to our Eurozone forecast brings into question the timing of peak inflation and how fast it will decline afterwards. Commodities and supply chains cannot fully explain recent inflation surprises, suggesting that some of this may be structural.