RaboResearch - Economic Research
Brexit update: no news is good news … and some hopeful signs
An assessment of the Indian rupee crisis
The Netherlands: still summer, but the days are getting shorter
France’s 2019 budget to reduce size of government
Could Italy fall out of the Eurozone by accident?
The impact of Trump
Brexit updates and their impact
The Greek debt crisis: developments from start till end
Most recent
Special Dutch version
Could Italy fall out of the Eurozone by accident?
With a thought experiment we show how Italy could fall out of the Eurozone ‘by accident’. Many wrong policy decisions appear necessary to reach that point. So the risk that it will happen is extremely low.
Economic Comment
Brexit update: no news is good news … and some hopeful signs
Prime Minister May of the United Kingdom survived the annual conference of the Conservative Party and that strengthens her position. The next milestone is the October EU summit and negotiations are intensifying ahead of it.
Economic Report
Is the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) making a policy error?
We believe the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is making a policy error after the last MPC meeting by keeping its policy rates on hold. There is a risk that the RBI is underestimating the inflationary pressure in the Indian economy and the impact of the ongoing Fed tightening cycle.
Economic Update
France’s 2019 budget to reduce size of government
French President Macron struggles with low approval ratings and decreasing economic confidence, despite a strong parliamentary mandate for reform and upward economic potential. The 2019 budget proposal reduces the size of government, modest improvements in public finances and stimulus for private demand.
Economic Update Dutch version
The Netherlands: still summer, but the days are getting shorter
The Dutch economy is enjoying an extended summer, but the days are getting shorter. Confidence is waning and a shortage of labour is beginning to constrain the economic expansion.
Economic Comment
De-dramatising Salzburg
The Brexit summit of EU leaders in Salzburg on 19-20 September ended up in a drama. That is not justified but it suggests the EU and the UK lack a good understanding of each other and that raises the odds of a ‘Hard Brexit’ by accident.
Column
There is no such thing as a costless Brexit
Leaving the EU has direct and structural economic costs for the UK, irrespective of how the country leaves the EU. The magnitude of the impact depends on the future trade relationship they will negotiate with the EU, and a transition period could soften the blow. From that perspective it is not reassuring that with six months left before ‘Brexit day’ the UK is still divided over the Brexit objectives.