RaboResearch - Economic Research
Should India Print Money To Fight Covid-19?
Dossier - Economic impact of the coronavirus
European Summit: Agreement on recovery fund and multiannual financial framework
COVID-19 Economic Dashboard
United States: Civil unrest
Dossier - Geopolitical risks
Dossier - The impact of Trump
Dossier - Brexit updates and economic impact
Most recent
Economic Comment
Eurozone: Worst GDP contraction in history
The Eurozone economy shrank by a record breaking 12.1 percent in the second quarter. We expect a technical recovery in the third quarter given that economies have partially reopened.
Economic Report
Should India Print Money To Fight Covid-19?
Against the backdrop of a crippled economy and rising debt metrics, policymakers around the globe are adopting or considering unconventional monetary policy to solve the current state of emergency. For some countries, such as India, this would be a bad idea. We show that a major MMT fiscal package could push inflation up to 12% and the currency down by 25%.
Economic Comment Dutch version
COVID-19 Economic Dashboard
Hard economic data usually comes available at quite some lag. To gauge the economic impact of COVID-19 we look at more timely economic indicators that are readily available. Data on traffic jams, international flights, and restaurant bookings are released sooner and more frequently. This helps us to better monitor the economic situation during the COVID-19 crisis.
Economic Report
United States: Civil unrest
The resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States reflects the failure of institutions. Protests in the streets reveal a polarized society and a lack of trust in institutions that predates the outbreak of the virus. No matter who wins the elections, the civil unrest is not likely to pass.
Economic Comment
European Summit: Agreement on recovery fund and multiannual financial framework
European leaders met to discuss the European recovery fund and the multiannual financial framework. The chances of a deal seemed to diminish when tensions rose, but in the end a compromise was reached. In this article we list the most important results.
Special
Money printing: First, do no harm
Can we just print extra money to tackle the corona crisis? We conclude that only seven (!) countries in the world meet our proposed MMT criteria: leaving aside the US, these countries need the rare combination of a sovereign currency, simultaneous fiscal deficit and current account surplus, plus good governance.
Special
Decoupling US-China supply chains: High tech on the move
We find clear indications that US supply chains have started to shift away from China. Vietnam, Mexico and Taiwan are the main beneficiaries of this shift. But the US also seems to be benefiting as we see signs of reshoring.
Special
COVID-19 has a devastating impact on Italy’s economy
We think that Italy’s GDP volume contracted by close to 17% y-o-y in the second quarter. The economy has started to recover, yet full recovery is unlikely before 2025. Public finances are set to deteriorate vastly, but a banking crisis is not imminent.
