Prime Minister May decided to cancel the ‘meaningful vote’ of the British Parliament on the deal with the EU scheduled for 11 December. Instead she will attempt to get more concessions from the EU during the summit on 13-14 December. Getting the deal through the British Parliament remains a challenge.
The US yield curve is getting flatter, which means that long term rates are only slightly higher than short term rates. We expect the yield curve to invert in 2019, which means that long rates fall below short rates. This would signal a recession in 2020.
At their G20 dinner, the United States and China have agreed to stop imposing new tariffs for a period of 90 days. We regard this as a can-kicking at best, and arguably puts the US in an even stronger position going forward.
The EU council approved the EU-UK Brexit deal on 25 November. The document sets out the divorce conditions. It also includes an outline of the envisaged future economic partnership in the appendix. The approval of the UK parliament is still pending.
Special Dutch version
Our results show that China disproportionately would bear the brunt of a US-China trade war, especially in case of a further escalation. Although most losses end up in these countries that are directly involved, the bilateral trade war also negatively affects third parties, such as the Eurozone and The Netherlands.
This Special re-assesses the economic impact of the US-China trade war, using more advanced methodologies. Our analysis shows that China disproportionately would bear the brunt of a US-China trade war, especially in case of a further escalation.
The United Kingdom and the EU have reached a deal in the Brexit negotiations. Unfortunately the road to an orderly Brexit remains a bumpy one and getting the deal approved by the UK Parliament is the main challenge.