RaboResearch - Economic Research

April 17, 2018 Special

India: trade wars and capital flight

US trade and monetary policy will have a substantial effect on the Indian economy. We calculate a Indian capital flows model to assess the impact of an acceleration of the Fed’s tightening cycle. Our results show that India would lose USD 22bn in missed capital inflows up to 2022.

Hugo Erken

Raphie Hayat

Marijn Heijmerikx

March 29, 2018 Economic Report

Brexit update: transition ON!

The EU and the UK reached an agreement over a transition period on March 19, 2018. That is good for business continuity but does not affect our Brexit outcome base case. Hence, we maintain our view that the economy will slow down in 2018.

Alexandra Dumitru

Stefan Koopman

March 27, 2018 Economic Comment

The defence spending gap in the EU

The EU is temporarily exempted from the steel and aluminium tariffs in the US. While seeking permanent exemption, it might be difficult for the EU to increase defence spending to the satisfaction of the US, due to the possibly massive costs involved.

Maartje Wijffelaars

Hugo Erken

March 22, 2018 Special

The Trump trade war intensifies: which segments are most vulnerable?

In anticipation of the new tensions in the trade war saga, we assess which economic segments are most vulnerable in China, Europe and the US. We subsequently look at bilateral trade ties, food & agri flows and fiscal deficits related to higher defence spending.

Hugo Erken et al.

March 21, 2018 Economic Report Dutch version

From Food Waste to Future Value

Food waste is a big problem: a third of all food produced globally ends either as food loss or food waste. Initiatives to reduce food waste can decrease company's and consumer’s footprint and increase their profit.