The past year has been tumultuous for Latin American politics, characterised by a shift to the right in election results and away from populism in policy, and numerous corruption scandals. Current risk levels are likely to linger in the coming year.
Economic activity in Latin America has been slowing down, but there still are pockets of opportunity. One example is the F&A sector in Brazil, which has performed much better than the overall economy.
Latin American currencies remain at the mercy of external factors and in particular global liquidity and central bank policy. And that is unlikely to change in the coming year.
Economic activity in Latin America is expected to pick up in 2017, though the improvement is modest. Few countries enjoy the room to use monetary or fiscal stimulus to give their economies a hand.
Political risks have decreased and the economic downturn seems to be bottoming out, but the out-look of the currently dire fiscal position is still uncertain.
Special Dutch version
Our analysis shows that many Dutch banks that from the start focused on serving private customers and small businesses have been operating with relatively low leverage ratios for 100 years or more. This Special is intended to contribute to a more factual debate.
The Argentinian government is sustaining efforts to open up and normalize the economy, but it is shifting to a more gradual approach given social and political constraints. Important successes have already been booked on the external front.