RaboResearch - Economic Research
China: Cooling economy induces policymakers to fire up the stimulus engine (again)
Eurozone: Revisiting growth
Brexit Update: It's the turn of the UK Parliament now
Homes in the Netherlands keep getting more expensive; in other countries prices are declining
Geopolitical risks
The impact of Trump
Brexit updates and economic impact
The Greek debt crisis: developments from start till end
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Economic Update Dutch version
The Netherlands: Growth heading to its potential level faster
While unemployment in the Netherlands briefly dropped to a new record low, collectively negotiated wages rose only slowly in 2018. Furthermore a decrease in demand from abroad also dampened Dutch exports in the final months of the year.
Column Dutch version
Six of the last four recessions
Financial markets are signalling the risk of a recession. They might have cried wolf before, but it is still worth paying attention to them.
Economic Report Dutch version
China: Cooling economy induces policymakers to fire up the stimulus engine (again)
Chinese economic growth continued its decline in the fourth quarter of 2018, bringing the annual growth figure for 2018 to 6.6%. This fits within our view of a gradual economic slowdown, but domestic and external risks are significantly on the rise.
Economic Report
India: 2019 Economic Outlook
In 2019, we expect the Indian economy to continue to be the global outperformer in terms of economic growth. There are however substantial downside risks, such as a defeat of Modi’s BJP in the general election and an escalation of the US-China trade war.
Video
India: 2019 Economic Outlook - video
In 2019, we expect the Indian economy to continue to be the global outperformer in terms of economic growth. There are however substantial downside risks, such as a defeat of Modi’s BJP in the general election and an escalation of the US-China trade war.
Economic Report
Eurozone: Revisiting growth
The disappointing recovery of the German car sector, the yellow vests in France and slowing external demand lead to a downward revision of our growth figures for 2018Q4 and 2019Q1.
Special
The US recession of 2020
The recent flattening of US treasury yield curve has activated our early warning system. Our model now gives a 69% chance of a recession by May 2020 and is increasingly pointing at 2020 as the year of the next recession.