May 19, 2022 Special

The Third Round of French Elections

On June 12 and 19, the French will go to the ballot boxes for the legislative elections. Polls indicate that Macron’s center coalition is set to win a majority, but this is far from certain. If he isn’t able to secure a majority, his hands will be tied to a significant extent.

May 12, 2022 Special

Re-appraising Eurozone inflation

Another revision to our Eurozone forecast brings into question the timing of peak inflation and how fast it will decline afterwards. Commodities and supply chains cannot fully explain recent inflation surprises, suggesting that some of this may be structural.

May 05, 2022 Economic Comment

France: A Second Term for Macron

Macron has won a second term as president of France. His first term was quite successful from an economic point of view and he is likely to push on with his reform agenda. The degree to which he is able to do so, is dependent on the outcome of the legislative elections in June.

May 04, 2022 Economic Update

High inflation keeps a grip on Dutch economy

High inflation keeps a grip on the Dutch economy. Economic growth is leveling off, but we do not expect a recession. The war in Ukraine is the largest source of uncertainty.

May 04, 2022 Special

The economic impact of a boycott on Russian fossil fuels

The EU is further tightening the thumbscrews on Russia. In this updated scenario analysis we take a closer look at the economic impact of an energy import ban. A decline in Eurozone GDP over the next four quarters seems all but given now.

April 26, 2022 Economic Report

The divergent impacts of the war in Ukraine on the EU’s energy transition

Given the EU reliance on Russian fossil fuels, the war in Ukraine impacts the speed of the energy transition. This article maps the main impacts and whether the measures adopted to mitigate them may delay or accelerate the energy transition.

April 22, 2022 Special

Five things you need to know about stationary energy storage

It’s hard to underestimate the relevance of stationary energy storage for the energy transition. This note outlines what stationary energy storage is, shows various storage technologies and predicts where the market will boom in coming years.

April 12, 2022 Special

Ukraine war poses a threat to EU industry

The Ukraine war has sparked another supply chain crisis. EU industry will be impacted via higher prices of both energy and non-energy commodities, lengthened delivery times of inputs and possibly shortages. Germany and Italy are relatively vulnerable.

April 04, 2022 Special

United States: Yield curve inversions and recessions

Yield curve inversions are often seen as warning signals of a recession, but a statistical analysis suggests that these signals should be interpreted with care. We provide the thresholds that would indicate a probability of a recession higher than 50%.

March 31, 2022 Economic Update

The Netherlands – Navigating an Uncertain Economic Outlook

We were moderately positive about 2022, despite growing concerns about the high inflation prints. But that was all before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.