The macroeconomic impact of the recently announced tit-for-tat trade-restrictive measures by the NAFTA partners and the EU deviates to a substantial degree between the parties involved, with the smaller ones getting the worst of it. This suggests that trade wars favour bigger economies like the US and EU.
The idea underlying Vollgeld is that of full-reserve banking from the 1930’s. In today’s context its side-effects would likely lead to instability and a deflationary tendency. In the Swiss case, uncertainty would have prevailed in the short-term, followed by a further appreciating Swiss Franc.
Scenario analyses shows that a surge in oil prices results in a global economic loss of 0.4ppts-0.9ppts between 2018 and 2022. The economic impact, however, is very unevenly distributed among countries. We distinguish three groups: the vulnerable ones, the lucky ones, and the uncomfortable ones.