Special Dutch version
This report shows that the US is more exposed to disruptions to bilateral intermediate trade flows than China. In addition, also exporters and consumers in third countries such as the Netherlands feel the pinch from a disruption in supply chains between China and the US.
The recent HKIA occupation has already hit Hong Kong’s economy and its global reputation; any repeat would be exponentially more damaging. Yet if such action were to trigger a crackdown from China the potential risks would be far larger than just to Hong Kong’s GDP or its reputation.
Dutch Housing Market Quarterly Dutch version
The rise in house prices is slowing, as expected. Whereas house prices rose 9 percent on average in 2018, we expect an average rise of 6 percent in 2019 and 4 percent in 2020. Sales are expected to stabilize around 205,000.
Brexit will get messier under Boris Johnson’s leadership and the British economy is already suffering from the Brexit uncertainty. The economic outlook for 2019 is modest and shadowed by the prospect of a hard Brexit on 31 October.
The recent announcement from the US to further up the ante in the trade dispute with China clearly marks a new escalation in the trade war. If one takes China’s recent response into account, it’s hard to see either side trying to ease tensions at this stage.
The US-China trade war will probably accelerate a shift of foreign production out of China. Our new ‘Where Will They Go index’ shows that Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Taiwan and India are likely to benefit from this production relocation.
Economic Update Dutch version
The Dutch economy is still growing but with mixed signals. Employment and consumption increased, but the manufacturing sector is showing weakness and the number of bankruptcies is slightly up.