September 23, 2022 Special

What a right-wing coalition would bring Italy

Italian elections on September 25 are set to be won by the conservative right coalition. Importantly, Italy will continue to support sanctions against Russia and eurozone membership, but frictions with the EU and the risk of fiscal slippage will increase.

September 22, 2022 Dutch Housing Market Quarterly

Sharp cooling of housing market due to higher interest rates and economic turnaround

Increased interest rates and energy crisis depress demand for owner-occupied homes. House prices are easing and are expected to decline slightly during 2023.

September 15, 2022 Special

The complex task of reforming the EU’s electricity market

On September 14, the European Commission proposed specific intervention measures to address the soaring energy prices. Such intervention is a complex task, and any approach has its own drawbacks. This report reviews the proposal and contextualises it, among all the possible ones.

September 14, 2022 Economic Quarterly Report

Dutch Economy Nears Tipping Point: High Inflation Causes Contraction

After strong growth rates in early 2022, inflation is expected to cause economic contraction in late 2022 and early 2023.

September 02, 2022 Economic Report

The Basics of Electricity Price Formation

Europe is facing very high prices for both natural gas and electricity. In many European countries, the prices of both commodities are related, most of the times. However, electricity prices are not pegged to natural gas prices. This article explains how electricity prices are established.

August 17, 2022 Special

An Unfolding Energy Crisis in Europe

There is a real risk of gas shortages this winter or in spring in certain Eurozone member states, such as Germany and Italy. Despite the search for alternatives for Russian gas, drastic cuts in gas demand are required in Germany.

August 10, 2022 Special

US: Technical Recession

The advance estimate for Q2 GDP growth shows that the US is in a ‘technical recession’, which means two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Meanwhile, the strong labor market is telling a different story. Therefore, it is not likely that the current economic circumstances will lead the NBER to call an official recession in H1.

August 04, 2022 Economic Update

Italy: Elections amid a cost of living crisis

In the second quarter, Italy’s economy performed better than expected and GDP is again larger than pre-pandemic. Still, a recession looks inevitable going forward, due to the cost of living crisis. After elections, policy could move significantly right.

August 03, 2022 Economic Update

The Netherlands: Slight Downturn Ahead

We continue to predict slowing growth and even expect two consecutive quarters of slightly negative growth in 2022Q4 and 2023Q1. Data currently available paints a rosier picture.

July 29, 2022 Economic Update

Eurozone GDP surprise masks weakening trend

The Eurozone economy beat expectations in the second quarter, as it grew by 0.7%. We still expect the eurozone economy to enter a shallow recession in the winter, although the risks of a severe contraction due to an energy crisis have increased.